碳酸锂月报：窄幅波动，关注需求预期博弈-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Around the National Day holiday, the downstream demand for lithium batteries is strong. In the short term, the supply of domestic lithium carbonate is less than the demand, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the bottom price. However, the planned resumption of production at Jianxiaowo and the resolution of the mining license issue at Zangge Lithium Industry suppress the upside potential due to the expected supply increase. Currently, both long and short funds are cautious. The lithium carbonate futures have been oscillating within a narrow range for three weeks, and the time for the market to choose a direction may be approaching. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of resource - end supply, the realization of strong demand expectations, and the atmosphere in the equity market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Prices: On October 10, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 73,011 yuan in the morning, down 5.3% from early September, with the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 72,740 yuan, down 3.73% from early September [12]. - Supply: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous week, reaching a new high. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative 41.7% increase in the first nine months. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an 8.5% year - on - year decrease, and 120,900 tons were exported to China, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The export volume from South America decreased from September to October, alleviating the domestic import pressure [12]. - Demand: According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.039 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase from the previous month. The new energy retail penetration rate of passenger vehicles was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. The "two new" policies in various regions from September to December 2024 significantly boosted car sales. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of domestic cars will slow down due to the high base. The traditional peak season for battery materials from September to October will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - Inventory: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons (1.5%) from the previous week. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 42,379 tons [12]. - Cost: On October 10, the quoted price of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 815 - 840 US dollars per ton, a 0.9% decrease from before the holiday. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has started to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Prices: On October 10, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 73,011 yuan in the morning, down 5.3% from early September, with the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 72,740 yuan, down 3.73% from early September [20]. - Basis and Position: The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market on the exchange is about - 200 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate is about 125,000 lots [23]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan, and the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 70 yuan [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - Domestic Production: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous week, reaching a new high. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month, a 51.7% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 41.7% increase in the first nine months [32]. - Production by Raw Material: In September, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative 74.7% increase in the first nine months; the production from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative 16.0% increase in the first nine months; the production from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons, with a cumulative 9.1% increase in the first nine months. Some salt lakes reduced or stopped production, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, so the reduction during the traditional off - season will be limited; the production from the recycling end was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month, with a cumulative 22.9% increase in the first nine months [35][38]. - Imports: In August 2025, China imported 21,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 57.8% increase from the previous month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year. Among them, 15,608 tons were imported from Chile and 4,253 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 153,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. In August 2025, Chile exported 16,903 tons of lithium carbonate, a 19.2% decrease from the previous month. Among them, 12,982 tons were exported to China, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year. It is expected that the domestic imports in September will decrease month - on - month [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application areas have limited and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [45]. - New Energy Vehicle Sales: In August 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were about 1.7 million, with a cumulative 23.7% increase from January to August year - on - year. From September 1 to 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.039 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase from the previous month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million, a 26.7% increase year - on - year, and in the United States were 1.063 million, an 8.1% increase year - on - year [48][51]. - Battery Production: In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 37.3% increase year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production was 970.7 GWh, a 54.3% increase year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 46.2% year - on - year, and the production of domestic ternary materials increased by 13.1% year - on - year. The traditional peak season for battery materials from September to October will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [53][56]. 3.5 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons (1.5%) from the previous week. The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 42,379 tons [63]. - Other Inventory Indicators: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - Lithium Concentrate Price: On October 10, the quoted price of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 815 - 840 US dollars per ton, a 0.9% decrease from before the holiday [73]. - Lithium Concentrate Imports: In August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 471,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year and an 18.3% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 3.85 million tons, the same as the previous year. In August, the lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50% month - on - month, and that from Africa increased by 82.2% month - on - month. From January to August, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and that from Africa decreased by 8.8% year - on - year (a 13.7% decrease in the first seven months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has started to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [76].