油脂月报：印尼低库存支撑，企稳后买入-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - International Oils: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - Domestic Oils: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - Production and Exports: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - Weather in Palm - Producing Areas: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - Inventory Charts: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - Cost Charts: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - Trading Volume: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - Biodiesel Profit: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]