Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate in October. If there are supply - side disturbances or policy drives, the price may continue to rise. In the long - term, as the southwest region enters the dry season, production cuts will reduce supply pressure, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. The price has room for repair compared to downstream polysilicon, and the "anti - involution" policy still has potential to improve prices [15]. - For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction phase before the actual implementation of policies or the emergence of new catalytic variables. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. However, after November, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the short - term price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction. The estimated lower support level for silicon material prices is 48,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of policies [17]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Monthly Points Summary - Polysilicon: In September (SMM), the output was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons; the cumulative output from January to September was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 333,000 tons. In September (百川盈孚), the DMC output was 208,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,800 tons. The cumulative DMC output from January to September was 1,861,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89%. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12,324,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,163,000 tons or 21.29%. From January to August, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54%. At the end of September, the industrial silicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 695,700 tons, remaining at a high level [13]. - Industrial Silicon: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In September 2025, the industrial silicon output (百川盈孚) was 384,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,600 tons, and the cumulative output from January to September was 2,934,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 596,500 tons or 16.89% [14]. - Fundamental Assessment - Industrial Silicon: The basis is positive, the cost is basically stable, the output continues to grow, the demand has marginal improvement, and the inventory remains high. In the future, the supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns. The polysilicon production schedule in October will increase slightly, and the supply pressure will decrease in the dry season in the southwest region, with cost support strengthening [15]. - Polysilicon: The main contract is at a discount, the output is stable month - on - month, the cost is 41,543.0 yuan/ton with a relatively good profit, the demand is weakening, and the factory inventory is flat. The market may enter a correction phase, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton [22]. - Polysilicon: As of September 30, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 52.55 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.55 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 yuan/kg [25]. 3. Industrial Silicon - Total Output: In September 2025, the industrial silicon output (百川盈孚) was 384,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,600 tons, and the cumulative output from January to September was 2,934,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 596,500 tons or 16.89% [30]. - Output in Main Production Areas: The report provides historical output data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, but no specific latest production data for each region are mentioned other than the overall data [32][34]. - Production Cost: As of September 30, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month, and the silicon stone price was stable. The silicon coal price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan [43][46]. - Visible Inventory: At the end of September, the industrial silicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 695,700 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 260,000 tons, the market inventory was 185,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 250,700 tons [49]. 4. Polysilicon - Output: In September (SMM), the polysilicon output was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons; the cumulative output from January to September was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 333,000 tons [54]. - Operating Rate and Production Schedule: In September (百川盈孚), the polysilicon operating rate was 49.43%, a month - on - month increase of 3.65 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in October will be 134,500 tons, a month - on - month increase [57]. - Inventory: At the end of September, the polysilicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 240,900 tons; the SMM - statistical inventory was 226,000 tons, and the factory inventory was flat [60]. - Cost and Profit: At the end of September, the polysilicon production cost (百川盈孚) was 41,543.0 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 9,057 yuan/ton, with a relatively good profit [63]. - Silicon Wafer: In September (SMM), the silicon wafer output was 59.05GW, a month - on - month increase of 3.01GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 488.17GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. At the end of September, the silicon wafer inventory (SMM) was 16.23GW, a slight month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 55.68GW, a month - on - month decrease [66][69]. - Battery Chip: In September (SMM), the battery chip output was 60.97GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.7GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 507.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. The operating rate in September was 59.56%, a month - on - month increase of 2.67 percentage points. At the end of September, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories (SMM) was 3.04GW, a month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 59.6GW, a slight month - on - month decrease [74][77]. - Module: In September (SMM), the module output was 49.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.7GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 429.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.34%. The operating rate in September was 48.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 percentage points. At the end of September, the finished module inventory (SMM) was 33.6GW, a month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 48.31GW, a decrease compared to September [82][85]. 5. Organic Silicon - Output: In September (百川盈孚), the DMC output was 208,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,800 tons. The cumulative DMC output from January to September was 1,861,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [92]. - Price and Profit: As of September 30, 2025, the average price of organic silicon (SMM) was 11,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit (百川盈孚) was - 1,921.88 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory: At the end of September, the DMC inventory (百川盈孚) was 44,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons [99]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy: As of September 30, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,940 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/ton. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12,324,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,163,000 tons or 21.29%. At the end of September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.6% [104][107]. - Export: From January to August, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [110].
工业硅&多晶硅月报：工业硅关注枯水期基本面改善，多晶硅跟随基本面短期修正-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 14:32