沥青月报：估值弱势即将结束-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current independent refinery operation rate is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of the cost - side crude oil will also limit the upward space of the unilateral price of asphalt [16]. - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is small, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the price changes from January to October 2025, and analyzes the impact of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment - Supply: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term [16]. - Demand: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - Cost: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and there is no continuous trend market [16]. - Short - term Factor Assessment - Supply: The production rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors [17]. - Demand: The operation rates of all demand - side segments are weak, especially the waterproofing membrane sector [17]. - Inventory: The overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation, with the total domestic inventory accumulating more than expected [17]. - Cost: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price range of some U.S. shale oil production areas [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - Basis Trend: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - Term Structure: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [41][44][47]. - Import: It includes the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [49][50][56]. - Valuation Ratio: It presents the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - Refinery Profit: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [62][65]. 4. Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [70]. - Warehouse Receipt: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipt volume and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [73]. - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: It analyzes the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [77]. 5. Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81][83][87]. - Downstream Operation Rate: It presents the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membranes, etc. [92][93][95]. - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [97][100][107]. - Road - related Machinery: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators [108]. - Related Consumption: It shows the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [114]. 6. Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [122][123][125]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [130]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: It classifies asphalt from production process and usage perspectives, indicating that straight - run asphalt has the largest production share and is mainly used for road construction, and asphalt is mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [133].