镍与不锈钢日评：反弹高度有限-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251010: Limited Rebound Height [1] 2. Core View - On October 9, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 130,864 lots (+3,674) and an open interest of 86,038 lots (+9,898). LME nickel rose 0.91%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the rebound height of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - Futures Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased on October 9 compared to previous dates. For example, the near - month contract closed at 124,260 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 130,864 lots, an increase of 3,674 lots. The open interest was 86,038 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while LME nickel inventory increased. The total LME nickel inventory on October 9 was 236,892 tons, an increase of 5,580 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different - term Shanghai nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active Shanghai nickel futures contract changed from - 2,430 yuan/ton on September 24 to 1,000 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - Futures Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts also had changes. The near - month contract closed at 12,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless steel futures contract was 88,195 lots, a decrease of 39,957 lots compared to September 24. The open interest was 60,514 lots, a decrease of 7,320 lots [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased. The inventory on October 9 was 86,551 tons, a decrease of 418 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different - term Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active futures contract was 970 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Other Market Data - Nickel Ore Prices: The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8%) remained flat [2]. - Nickel - related Product Prices: The prices of nickel - related products such as nickel pig iron, battery - grade nickel sulfate, and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate had different changes [2]. 4. Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the validity period of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to one year, and required general mining license (IUP) and single - commodity mining license (IUPK) holders to re - apply for RKAB in 2026 and 2027 [2]. 5. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Short at high prices [2].