Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In October, iron ore prices will be dragged down by terminal demand. After the end - of - Q3 shipping rush, overseas mines' shipments are expected to decline seasonally, and arrivals are also expected to decrease. Steel mills' hot metal production remains high, but downstream terminal demand is weak. After the pre - holiday restocking, the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will accumulate. If the finished product inventory pressure increases and steel prices adjust downward, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and port inventories are expected to increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the policy directions from the Fourth Plenary Session in late October and the potential impact of sudden news on prices [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: In September, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8238 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,400 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons [13]. - Demand: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in September was 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month [13]. - Inventory: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Spreads: At the end of September, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 71 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the Carajás - PB powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton; the Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: At the end of September, the pellet feed ratio was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the lump ore feed ratio was 12.06%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: At the end of September, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 5.63 percentage points [28]. 3. Inventory - Port Inventory: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; pellet inventory was 2.7865 million tons, a decrease of 47,200 tons; iron concentrate inventory was 10.8306 million tons, a decrease of 295,300 tons; lump ore inventory was 17.2213 million tons, an increase of 682,300 tons; Australian ore port inventory was 59.1619 million tons, a decrease of 621,200 tons; Brazilian ore port inventory was 53.5452 million tons, an increase of 3.1776 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 7.292 million tons [43]. 4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: In September, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. Rio Tinto's weekly average shipments were 6.319 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons; BHP's were 5.4408 million tons, an increase of 192,400 tons; Vale's were 5.3985 million tons, a decrease of 1.2485 million tons; FMG's were 4.1385 million tons, an increase of 509,700 tons [49][52][55]. - Arrivals and Imports: In September, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons [58]. - Domestic Mines: At the end of September, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 478,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [61]. 5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production: The estimated domestic hot metal production in September was 72.05 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month. At the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [66]. - Ore Removal and Consumption: In September, the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [69]. 6. Basis As of September 30, the calculated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 54.21 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.49% [74].
铁矿石月报：终端需求拖累矿价-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 14:38