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内需表现持稳,价格或加速修复:——9月经济数据预测
Huachuang Securities·2025-10-10 14:54
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - CPI: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - PPI: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - Export: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - Import: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - Manufacturing Investment: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity): The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - Real Estate Investment: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - Overall Fixed - Asset Investment: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - Credit: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - Components of Social Financing: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - M2 Growth Rate: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].