聚烯烃月报：季节性旺季已至，成本端驱动下行-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Eleven - OPEC meeting production increase resolution landed, Fed rate - cut expectation in October rose again. Cost - end crude oil and LPG prices were under pressure, polyolefin overall profit was poor, and upper - middle stream inventory at high levels started to decline. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals was the divergence in the supply of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity). With the seasonal peak season, the LL - PP spread was expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [16][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: After the OPEC meeting during the National Day holiday, the production increase resolution was implemented, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October rose again [16] - Cost - end: WTI crude oil fell by 0.13%, Brent crude oil fell by 0.21%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 2.60%, ethylene fell by 4.69%, propylene fell by 4.40%, and propane fell by 10.08%. Oil prices fluctuated at a low level, and the impact of the cost - end was relatively small. The trading logic of the futures market was strongly affected by macro - sentiment [16] - Supply - end: PE capacity utilization was 83.6%, up 3.89% month - on - month, 1.83% year - on - year, and 10.07% lower than the five - year average for the same period. PP capacity utilization was 77.29%, down 3.38% month - on - month, 0.25% year - on - year, and 9.92% lower than the five - year average for the same period. There was a divergence in the supply of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity) [16] - Import and Export: In August, domestic PE imports were 950,200 tons, down 14.17% month - on - month and 22.11% year - on - year. PP imports were 159,600 tons, down 22.23% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export peak season arrived. In August, PE exports were 116,000 tons, up 14.12% month - on - month and 61.83% year - on - year. PP exports were 250,200 tons, up 5.99% month - on - month and 32.77% year - on - year [16] - Demand - end: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 9.60% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.00%, up 3.52% month - on - month and 1.90% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the level of the same period in previous years [17] - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 382,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 15.11% and a year - on - year destocking of 18.21%. PE trader inventory was 46,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 20.25% and a year - on - year destocking of 8.43%. PP production enterprise inventory was 520,300 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 3.38% and a year - on - year destocking of 4.93%. PP trader inventory was 187,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 11.30% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 52.82%. PP port inventory was 66,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 10.28% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 0.91% [17] - Next - month Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2601) was (7200 - 7500), and for polypropylene (PP2601) was (6900 - 7200) [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [18] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The 2601 contract had a mismatch in production plans. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [64] 3.3 Cost - end - Crude oil prices fluctuated at the bottom. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all had different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [16][85] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - Production Raw Material Proportion: The production raw materials of PE included oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions [126][128] - Capacity and Production: The national PE capacity and production had changed over the years, and there were also new production capacity plans in 2025. Some projects had been put into production, and some were yet to be put into production [131][132] - Capacity Utilization: The PE capacity utilization rate had fluctuations over time [133] - Maintenance Plan: There were many PE maintenance plans, including planned and unplanned maintenance, and the current week's maintenance volume and return volume were also provided [138] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Inventory: The total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE all showed different trends over time [142][145] - Import: The monthly and cumulative import volumes of PE had changed over the years [148][150] - Export: The monthly export volumes of PE and LLDPE also had different trends [153] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand for polyethylene was mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc [160] - Downstream Operating Rate: The overall downstream operating rate of PE and the operating rates of different downstream industries such as packaging film, pipes, and hollow products all had fluctuations [169][174] - Related Indicators: Indicators such as CPI and downstream demand cumulative year - on - year also provided information on the demand situation [165][167]