Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there is a resonance of multiple negative factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather constraints. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the lows of the plum - rain season, showing the weakest performance in the same period in many years. The previous futures market had expectations for post - holiday restocking, but after the expectations were disappointed, it continued to trade and squeeze the premium. Although the culling of laying hens has accelerated, it is difficult to match the scale of new supply in the short term. Considering that the negative feedback of the spot market is still continuing, it is advisable to maintain a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium term, after the pessimistic sentiment eases, there is a possibility of a rebound correction driven by restocking. In the long term, the supply pressure is large, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short sell [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot market: In September, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell, in line with the seasonal pattern. At the beginning of the month, stimulated by consumption themes such as the start of school, the market sales improved. After the middle of the month, the market risk - control sentiment increased, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. During the National Day, the restocking consumption was lower than expected, inventory accumulated, and prices continued to fall, with the decline significantly higher than expected. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan per catty, with a monthly high of 3.6 yuan per catty; the price in Guantao decreased by 0.29 yuan to 2.49 yuan per catty, with a monthly high of 3.6 yuan per catty; the price in Huilongguan in the sales area decreased by 0.38 yuan to 3.05 yuan per catty; the price in Dongguan increased by 0.13 yuan to 2.94 yuan per catty. It is expected that egg prices will be weakly sorted at a low level in the first half of October and may have a slight rebound space in the second half due to restocking [11] - Restocking and culling: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national restocking volume in September continued to decline to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the culling of old hens has increased significantly, the price of culled hens has fallen to a multi - year low, and the average age of hens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [11] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than previously expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with 1.288 billion last year. Based on previous restocking calculations, considering normal culling, the inventory will still have room to increase in the future, with a peak expected to reach 1.373 billion in November this year, a slight increase from the current level. Although there will be a decline later, the inventory will still be high, and the supply side will still face an oversupply situation in the long term [11] - Demand side: The restocking for the Double Festival is coming to an end, and post - holiday consumption tends to be flat. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [11] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound in November and December; for arbitrage, there is currently no recommendation [13] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Spot price trend: In September, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell, in line with the seasonal pattern. Specific prices in different regions have different changes. It is expected that egg prices will be weakly sorted at a low level in the first half of October and may have a slight rebound space in the second half due to restocking [20] - Basis and spread: After the holiday, as the spot price fell, the futures basis returned to a relatively low level, driving the spread between contracts to fall [23] - Culled hen price: Egg prices are not strong during the peak season. Currently, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the price of culled hens has significantly declined. Attention should be paid to its sustainability [26] 3.3 Supply Side - Laying hen restocking: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national restocking volume in September continued to decline to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33] - Culled hen culling: Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the culling of old hens has increased significantly, the price of culled hens has fallen to a multi - year low, and the average age of hens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [36] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than previously expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with 1.288 billion last year. Based on previous restocking calculations, considering normal culling, the inventory will still have room to increase in the future, with a peak expected to reach 1.373 billion in November this year, a slight increase from the current level. Although there will be a decline later, the inventory will still be high, and the supply side will still face an oversupply situation in the long term [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - The restocking for the Double Festival is coming to an end, and post - holiday consumption tends to be flat. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. In terms of profitability, it is at a relatively low seasonal level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]
鸡蛋月报：弱情绪延续-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 15:16