Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to the lowest level this year, and the valuation pressure has decreased. However, the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. With multiple new devices to be tested in the short term, domestic downstream demand is weak, and export expectations are poor in the fourth quarter. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is poor after the new device is put into production, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost - profit: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2890 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton year - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 730 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - month. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped significantly from the high, while the profit of ethylene production has improved slightly, and the overall valuation support has strengthened [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, up 5.5% year - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, up 6.2% year - on - month; the ethylene method is 81.9%, up 3.8% year - on - month. The maintenance volume increased slightly last month, but new devices released production, and the supply pressure actually increased. This month, the maintenance intensity is expected to decrease, and two new devices are planned to be tested and put into production this year, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to rise [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the year - on - year growth rate of export volume in August was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and it was difficult to drive the destocking of domestic inventory. The Indian anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented from October to November, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further. The start - up of the three major downstream industries has rebounded slightly, but the overall downstream load is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 38.4 tons, up 6.8 tons year - on - month; the social inventory is 103.6 tons, up 11.8 tons year - on - month; the overall inventory is 142 tons, up 18.6 tons year - on - month; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently in the inventory accumulation cycle, inventory accumulation will continue without unexpected performance at the export end or obvious upstream production cuts [11]. - Summary: Last month, the trading was mainly based on the weak fundamentals of PVC. There was a rebound in the middle of the month driven by the sentiment of the building materials and black sectors, but it was difficult to support the weak pattern of significant inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is poor after the new devices are put into production, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old devices to digest the domestic excess capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, and the prices of PVC in the East China SG - 5 market, as well as the trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts, to show the market price and trading situation of PVC [15][19][24][26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped to a historical low, and the valuation pressure has decreased [42]. - Inventory: The factory inventory and social inventory of PVC have both increased year - on - month, and the overall inventory is in the accumulation cycle. The warehouse receipts are also rising [11]. The report also provides multiple charts to show the inventory changes of PVC in different production methods and the overall inventory situation [31][32][34][38]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have risen and then fallen, semi - coke prices have stabilized and rebounded, caustic soda prices have declined, and ethylene prices have fallen [49][52]. The report provides multiple charts to show the price and inventory changes of calcium carbide, semi - coke, caustic soda, and ethylene [50][53][56]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity will be put into production throughout the year [61][66]. Although the average load of PVC decreased in September, the output was difficult to reduce due to the new device production [69]. The report also provides charts to show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the quarterly production capacity of new devices, and the production start - up and weekly output of PVC [62][64][75]. 6. Demand Side - The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded, but it is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The export volume in August increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further after the implementation of the Indian anti - dumping policy [11][78]. The report provides multiple charts to show the start - up of downstream industries, export volume, pre - sale volume, and the situation of the real estate market [78][86][91].
PVC月报：投产如期落地，库存上升至季节性高位-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 15:15