估值弱势即将结束：沥青月报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term: The report believes that it is highly likely for asphalt valuation to decline in the second half of the year. The current operation rate of independent refineries is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - Short - term: The weakness of asphalt has been gradually realized, and the supply - demand contradiction is relatively small in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents the recent trend chart of the asphalt main contract, and analyzes the influence of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment: - Supply: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume a certain operating rate, which will restrict the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, for the valuation to decline, local refineries need to significantly recover, and they are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term [16]. - Demand: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared with previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - Cost: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and it is difficult to have a continuous trend market [16]. - Short - term Factor Assessment: - Supply: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors in peripheral heavy - oil countries [17]. - Demand: The operation rates of all demand - side segments remain weak, and the weakness of waterproofing membranes exceeds expectations [17]. - Inventory: The overall inventory shows a phenomenon of weak destocking, and social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation. The domestic total inventory accumulates more than expected [17]. - Cost: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price of some shale oil production areas in the United States. The oil price is suppressed by political expectations but supported by fundamentals [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][24][26]. - Basis Trend: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [31]. - Term Structure: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [34][35]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [41]. - Import: It presents the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [48][50][55]. - Valuation Ratio: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - Refinery Profit: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [61][64][65]. 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69]. - Warehouse Receipts: It shows the quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [73]. 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81]. - Downstream Operation Rate: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [90]. - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation [97]. - Road - related Machinery: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [108]. - Related Consumption: It shows the completion amount of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance amount of special local government bonds [114]. 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [120]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [129]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: It classifies asphalt from the perspectives of production process and usage, and points out its main applications [133].