苯乙烯月报：纯苯供应端承压，苯乙烯需求回暖-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the OPEC meeting's production - increase decision during the National Day holiday and the rising probability of a Fed rate cut, styrene prices are still falling. The BZN spread and the non - integrated EB unit profit are decreasing, with the overall valuation being moderately high. - In the context of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production is on the rise. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production starts to rebound slightly, due to the reality of weak supply and demand, both factory and port inventories are significantly increasing, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap of pure benzene will decrease, while that of styrene will improve. [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: During the National Day holiday, the OPEC meeting's production - increase decision was implemented, and the probability of a Fed rate cut increased. - Valuation: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > cost > futures), the basis weakened, the BZN spread weakened, and the non - integrated EB unit profit weakened. - Cost: The price of pure benzene in East China dropped by 2.11% this month, with a moderately high pure benzene operating rate. In August, China's pure benzene imports were 441200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.13% and a year - on - year increase of 8.38%, mainly from the Middle East. - Supply: The EB capacity utilization rate was 73.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%, and a decrease of 10.73% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter and many maintenance operations in September, with the largest production pressure for the whole year in the fourth quarter. - Import and Export: In August, EB imports were 269200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29%. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has subsided, and imports have rebounded. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of the downstream three - S was 45.44%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03%. The PS operating rate was 62.50%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 12.71%. The EPS operating rate was 61.50%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52%. The ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% and a year - on - year increase of 8.50%. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operating rate is oscillating upwards from a low level. - Inventory: The in - factory EB inventory was 209000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.14% and a year - on - year increase of 22.80%. The EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 201900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.39% and a year - on - year increase of 347.67%. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price. - Next - Month Forecast: For styrene (EB2511), the reference oscillation range is (6700 - 7000). - Recommended Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. [11][12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the styrene futures and spot market, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and various spreads. However, no specific analysis or data summaries are provided in the text part of this section. [15][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The report shows charts of the styrene port inventory and factory inventory, but no detailed data analysis is provided. - Profit: Styrene profit is oscillating at a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% POSM, and 3% C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity. [40][43][45] 3.4 Cost Side - Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene and Its Downstream: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of pure benzene is 228, and that of its downstream (including styrene) is 311. The downstream demand for pure benzene is 454.9, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 226.9. - BZN Spread: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward. - Pure Benzene Operating Rate: The pure benzene operating rate is moderately high. - Inventory of Caprolactam Factories: The inventory of caprolactam factories is oscillating at a high level. [50][56][64] 3.5 Supply Side - Production Gap: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the styrene shortage will intensify, which may support prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242, and that of its downstream is 419.8. The downstream demand for styrene is 341.73, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 99.73. - Maintenance and Production: There were many maintenance operations in September, and the production volume has declined from the same - period high. [95][97][105] 3.6 Demand Side - EPS and PS: The operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded with profits. - ABS: The ABS operating rate has rebounded with profits. - Home Appliance Production: The production of refrigerators and washing machines shows certain trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate. [117][125][144]