锡月报：供给延续偏紧，关注缅甸复产进展-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the domestic tin price showed a generally oscillating and strengthening trend, and it increased significantly at the beginning of October due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. - In the short - term, the shortage of tin supply is obvious, and the tin price is expected to remain stable at a high level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress in Myanmar at the end of October [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining permits in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 10,267 tons, unchanged from the previous month. Imports from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia decreased slightly due to shipping factors, while imports from Myanmar increased. Imports from other regions remained at previous levels [11]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow and difficult to increase production before November. Raw material shortages in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still persist. In addition, a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan started maintenance in September, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output remained at a low level. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances, which account for the majority of demand, remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the short - term, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream consumption has marginally improved, and the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises rebounded to 73.22% in August [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text summary content provided, only relevant graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow, and it is difficult to increase production before November. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages, and a large - scale smelting enterprise's maintenance in September led to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan. In Jiangxi, due to a reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output remains low. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. 3.5 Demand Side - The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 decreased by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline, mainly because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [11][46][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Inventory: The social inventory of tin ingots continued to decline. Last Friday, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 8,352 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to September 19 [11][13].