锌月报：有色氛围积极，伦锌交割品紧缺-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index rebounded after a decline, closing up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. The domestic zinc ore's explicit inventory is decreasing, and the domestic TC is declining again. Although the imported TC continues to rise, the current low Shanghai-London ratio limits its upward space, alleviating the zinc ore surplus. Both domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. After the holiday, the cancelled warrants have risen again, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the zinc ingot export window. Recently, precious metals and non-ferrous metals have been performing strongly, and after the export window opened, some short positions on the domestic exchange closed, causing Shanghai zinc to rise with reduced positions. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. As of the report's end, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,140 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons [11]. - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 303,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 629,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively [11]. - Overall Outlook: The domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the export window. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 344,800 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.5%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.2%. In August, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a month-on-month increase of 37.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in August was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0% [33][35]. - Profit Distribution: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - stage Operating Rates: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively. Their raw material and finished product inventories were also reported [40]. - Apparent Demand: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot's apparent demand was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to August was a surplus of 142,600 tons [53]. - Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 58,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton [61]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 15,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was $59.11/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $82.75/ton [64]. - Cross - market Structure: The post - exchange - rate - adjusted Shanghai - London ratio was 1.034, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 4,167.68 yuan/ton [67]. - Position Analysis: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [70].