Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, real - world pressure still suppresses the market, but trading based on expectations of important meetings is still promising. The price of the black sector may first decline to release bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". It is more cost - effective to find retracement points to go long rather than shorting. The black sector may gradually have the value of long - term allocation around mid - October [15]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal with high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is difficult to have an independent strong market without major contradictions [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Data: As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 70 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures price was 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 92 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 1.58% [14][20]. - Profit and Cost: Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low. Inner Mongolia was - 321 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 438 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was - 621 yuan/ton. The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 6001 yuan/ton, Ningxia was 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was 6321 yuan/ton [14][23][30]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.42 tons, down 0.22 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month. Weekly output of rebar was 203.4 tons, down 3.62 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [14][44][60]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 51.42 tons, down 0.34 tons month - on - month, still at a high level in the same period [14][72]. 3.2期现市场 - As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5670 yuan/ton, futures price was 5768 yuan/ton, basis was 92 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 1.58%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of 2025/10/09, manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low. Inner Mongolia was - 321 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 438 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was - 621 yuan/ton [23]. - Cost: As of 2025/10/09, South African ore was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree, Australian ore was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, Gabonese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, and off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton. The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 6001 yuan/ton, Ningxia was 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was 6321 yuan/ton [26][30]. - Manganese Ore Import: In August, manganese ore imports were 348.6 tons, up 74.24 tons month - on - month and up 87.53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, cumulative imports were 2068.88 tons, up 181.7 tons or 9.63% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of 2025/09/26, manganese ore port inventory was 447.8 tons, up 20.6 tons month - on - month. Australian manganese ore port inventory was 66.6 tons, up 1.3 tons month - on - month, and high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 121.9 tons, up 9.2 tons month - on - month [36][39]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Output: As of 2025/10/09, weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.42 tons, down 0.22 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month [44]. - Steel Tendering: In September 2025, HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume was 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and up 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - Consumption: As of 2025/10/09, weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.21 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 203.4 tons, down 3.62 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. In August 2025, national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and down 53 tons year - on - year [60][63]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of 2025/10/09, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 51.42 tons, down 0.34 tons month - on - month, still at a high level in the same period [72]. - Sample Enterprise Inventory: As of 2025/10/09, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 24.25 tons, up 0.37 tons month - on - month [75]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level in the same period [78]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In September, manganese silicon's disk price fluctuated within a range, with a monthly decline of 20 yuan/ton or 0.35%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and its recent trend was weak, close to the lower limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the support around 5600 yuan/ton [81]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, real - world pressure still suppresses the market, but trading based on expectations of important meetings is still promising. The price of the black sector may first decline to release bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". It is more cost - effective to find retracement points to go long rather than shorting. The black sector may gradually have the value of long - term allocation around mid - October [98]. - Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it is likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operational cost - effectiveness [98]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Data: As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, basis was 228 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 4.00%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [97][103]. - Profit and Cost: Ferrosilicon's estimated immediate profit declined significantly. Inner Mongolia was - 581 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 497 yuan/ton, and Qinghai was - 584 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in main producing areas was basically stable [97][108][114]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.58 tons, basically stable week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. From January to September 2025, cumulative output of magnesium metal was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports of ferrosilicon were 27.1 tons, down 1.89 tons or 6.52% year - on - year [97][119][131]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.96 tons, up 0.23 tons month - on - month, at a relatively high level in the same period [97][142]. 3.2期现市场 - As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, basis was 228 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 4.00%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [103]. 3.3 Profit and Cost** - Profit: As of 2025/10/09, ferrosilicon's estimated immediate profit declined significantly. Inner Mongolia was - 581 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 497 yuan/ton, and Qinghai was - 584 yuan/ton [108]. - Cost: As of 2025/10/09, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke small materials was 750 yuan/ton, both stable month - on - month. The estimated production cost in main producing areas was basically stable [111][114]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Output: As of 2025/10/09, weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.58 tons, basically stable week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month [119]. - Steel Tendering: In September 2025, HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume was 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and up 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [125]. - Steel Consumption: As of 2025/10/09, daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. In August 2025, national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and down 53 tons year - on - year [128]. - Non - steel Consumption: From January to September 2025, cumulative output of magnesium metal was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year. As of 2025/10/09, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports of ferrosilicon were 27.1 tons, down 1.89 tons or 6.52% year - on - year. As of 2025/10/09, the estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to August 2025, the total output of overseas crude steel was 5.57 billion tons, down 300 million tons or 0.54% year - on - year [131][134][135]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of 2025/10/09, the estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.96 tons, up 0.23 tons month - on - month, at a relatively high level in the same period [142]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of ferrosilicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level in the same period [145]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In September, ferrosilicon's disk price fluctuated within a range, with a monthly decline of 62 yuan/ton or 1.12%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and its recent trend was weak, with five consecutive negative daily lines and once breaking through the support at 5400 yuan/ton to reach a new low. Attention should be paid to the support around 5400 yuan/ton [150].
锰硅月报：短期现实压力仍压制盘面，对于重要会议预期交易仍旧可期-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 15:06