生猪月报：现货压力提前兑现-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theoretical supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative across the board. The spot market has entered a period of concentrated decline. Under pessimistic sentiment, the premium of the near - month contract on the futures market has been continuously squeezed out. - Considering that the price decline started earlier this year, it has released some risks before the Spring Festival to a certain extent, making the themes of inventory accumulation and consumption in the later period more prominent. Pay attention to when the pessimistic sentiment eases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the far - month contracts. - As the premium space of the near - month contract is squeezed out, the operation strategy should change from shorting on rallies to reducing short positions. After the spot price stabilizes, consider the possibility of a 1 - 3 positive spread, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for the far - end contracts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: The market supply pressure has been concentratedly realized, and the consumption before and after holidays fell short of expectations. Since September, the live - hog spot price has dropped significantly. The weight has not decreased significantly, the fat - to - standard price difference has increased slightly month - on - month but the absolute level is limited, and the number of pens of small - scale farmers has declined and is lower year - on - year. The average price in Henan dropped by 2.52 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 2.1 yuan to 11.16 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 2.7 yuan to 12.02 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in September was low, and the supply in October is still sufficient. The theoretical and planned slaughter scale is large, and the consumption has declined slightly month - on - month. The price is expected to be weak in consolidation, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month as the temperature drops [11]. - Supply Side: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight decrease of 60,000 heads month - on - month (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve the supply situation next year. The data from different sources shows different trends in sow inventory changes, and more evidence is needed to determine whether the capacity has been effectively reduced. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November has a significant increase, but the continuous weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. The current market still shows a clear situation of oversupply [11]. - Demand Side: At the beginning of September, with the start of the new semester, the temperature drop in the middle and late September, and the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, there may be marginal improvement in demand. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter a low - season again until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - Trading Strategy: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the arbitrage strategy, take profit on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads on dips, and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread. The profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, the recommended period is 2 months, and the core driving factors include policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - to - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: The spot price has dropped significantly since September due to concentrated supply pressure and lower - than - expected consumption. The prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have all decreased. The price is expected to be weak in October, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price has dropped sharply, the basis has decreased significantly, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse - spread logic [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In August, the official sow inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity may lead to a weaker market in 2025. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, there is an increase in supply from September to November, but the weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may offset some pressure. The current market shows oversupply [42]. - Sow Culling and Sales: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has increased slightly, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - to - standard price difference [45]. - Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter: The slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has started to stabilize and rebound, showing an oversupply situation [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: There may be marginal improvement in demand at the beginning of September and during the holidays, but it will enter a low - season after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. - Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - Price Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - Fresh - Frozen Price Spread and Fresh - Sales Rate: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: The frozen - product inventory is in a state of slow recovery [74].