不锈钢月报：库存如期去化，市场矛盾不足-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, steel mills maintained stable supply, but the new supply from leading steel mills was limited. The increase in Qing - series hot - rolled resources alleviated the previous tight supply situation. Although the inventory was in the process of depletion, the overall demand performance was relatively dull, and the expectation of the peak season was not fully realized, which put some pressure on the market. Economic data showed that the real estate industry was still weak, and the market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome were running strongly, continuously squeezing the profits of steel mills. Overall, the contradictions between the supply and demand sides of stainless steel were insufficient, and the market expectation remained pessimistic. Looking forward to October, as Indonesia issued the RKAB Ministerial Order again, the approval plan for mines in 2026 is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. If the approval process is delayed, it may further tighten the nickel ore supply pattern in the first quarter of 2026. Whether the demand can improve before the end of the peak season is still the key to whether the stainless - steel market can start [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Monthly Key Points Summary: On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons, and the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The base price was 90 yuan/ton, the production profit was 2.9028 million tons, the demand was - 634, the supply was 3.0357 million tons, and the inventory was 975,900 tons. The multi - empty scores and simple evaluations of all aspects were neutral [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+22) higher than the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 90 yuan (+82) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the disk was 269,578 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 20 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 90 (+10) [16][19][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons. The crude steel output in September was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. In August, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.40%. In August, the net export volume of stainless steel was 330,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%; from January to August, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [26][29][32][35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%; the automobile sales volume in August was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [39][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79% [49][52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In August, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.92% and a year - on - year increase of 29.87%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.0937 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel. Last week, the price of chrome ore was reported at 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was reported at 8,600 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 4.6% [56][59][62][65].