Report Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the sugar industry [1][9][10] Core View - The sugar market is under pressure due to high yields in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. The overall recommendation is to continue shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10][11] Summary by Section 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In September, the ICE raw sugar March contract price fell to 16.6 cents per pound, a 2.24% decline. The Zhengzhou sugar January contract price dropped to 5493 yuan per ton, a 1.98% decrease. Various spreads and basis also showed different trends [9] - Industry News: In the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.94% year - on - year increase in cane crushing to 4597.3 million tons and a 15.72% increase in sugar production to 362.2 million tons. As of October 8, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 83, and the waiting sugar volume rose to 360.81 million tons [9] - View and Strategy: The sugar production data from Brazil in the first half of September was bearish but in line with expectations. With the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a bearish view is maintained, and shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter is recommended [9] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread was weak, the production - sales area spread fluctuated, the raw - white sugar spread changed little, the raw sugar production advantage expanded slightly, and the high valuation of the futures market was somewhat corrected. The overall recommendation is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10] - Trading Strategy: A single - side shorting on rallies strategy is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within 3 months. The core driving logic is the large import supply pressure and expected production increase in the new season [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, showing the historical trends of these spreads from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][25] 3. Domestic Market Situation - Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41] - Imports: Data on monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixes in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [44] - Sales: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [49] - Inventory: The monthly industrial inventory in China and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [52] 4. International Market Situation - Brazilian Central - Southern Production: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region from 21/22 to 25/26 [57] - Indian Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [62] - Thai Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [65] - Brazilian Shipment: Charts show the sugar inventory in Brazil's central - southern region and the sugar volume waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68]
白糖月报:巴西高产叠加北半球增产预期,维持看空-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 15:20