原油月报：OPEC原则性低速增产原油测试挺价底部-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests maintaining a low-buy and high-sell range strategy for oil prices. However, current oil prices need to test OPEC's export price support willingness. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [16]. - Overall, in the second half of the year, the upside potential of oil prices is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a bottom - supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: During the October holiday, international oil prices maintained a weak oscillation as OPEC slightly increased production again, and domestic oil prices started to make up for the decline after the holiday. Overall, there were no major contradictions in geopolitics and Middle East supply, resulting in a weak oscillation pattern for crude oil [16]. - Supply - Demand Changes: OPEC held a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US refineries continued their seasonal decline. Affected by Russia in the short term, refined oil crack spreads were at high levels. Overall, supply and demand were in good condition, and oil prices fluctuated within the short - term value upper and lower limits [16]. - Macro - Politics: At the macro level, the US government shut down during the National Day holiday, and the release of CPI data was postponed. Politically, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC countries had not discussed increasing production quotas after November. The European Parliament sought to accelerate the phased - out of Russian oil and gas. In the US, it was ruled that the large - scale offshore drilling ban during the Biden administration was illegal [16]. - Short - Term Impact Factors: Factors such as US policy, geopolitics, macro factors, non - OPEC supply - demand, and OPEC supply - demand were analyzed, with most factors being rated as neutral, and the US policy being rated as bearish [17]. - Medium - Term Impact Factors: Global supply - demand from China, the US, and the Middle East, as well as macro - political factors including macro and geopolitical aspects, were analyzed. The overall outlook for the second half of the year is that the upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the oscillation center is expected to move down slightly [23]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators: Analyzed indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread in relation to WTI oil prices [40]. - Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators: Analyzed indicators such as the eurozone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [43]. - Geopolitical Indicators: Analyzed the Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) in relation to WTI oil prices [46]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: Analyzed the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 month spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [51]. - Inter - Regional Spreads: Analyzed spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [54][55]. - Product Spreads: Analyzed the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB [61][65]. - Crack Spreads: Analyzed crack spreads in Singapore, Europe, and the US for gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [69][72][75]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - Supply: OPEC & OPEC+ - OPEC Meeting Results: Recounted OPEC's production - related decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and increases [81]. - OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary: Analyzed indicators such as the crude oil production and quotas of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quotas of OPEC+ 19 countries [83]. - OPEC 12 - Country Supply: Provided the supply volume (including dynamic forecasts) of OPEC 12 countries, including individual country production and export volume forecasts [90][94][97]. - OPEC+ Major Member Supply: Provided the export volume forecasts of major OPEC+ member countries such as Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [111]. - Supply: US - US Policies: The US Treasury Department imposed the most severe sanctions on Iran since 2018, and there were various policies and statements from the US government regarding oil - related issues [116][117]. - US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs: No specific content was provided in the given text.