铂族金属月报：关注短期回调后的逢低做多机会-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strength of the precious metals sector drove the price increase of platinum group metals this month. The prices of platinum group metals have reached relatively high levels, and there is a risk of short - term correction. However, in the context of the significant impact on the US dollar credit and the continuous interest - rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve, the precious metals sector still has room for strong performance. It is recommended to wait for the full correction of platinum and palladium prices and then look for opportunities to go long, with a focus on platinum with more obvious financial attributes [9]. - NYMEX platinum prices are expected to enter a consolidation range after rising to around the 1730 resistance level and then falling back. NYMEX palladium prices are also expected to enter a consolidation range after falling back from the 1531 resistance level, and its technical chart is significantly weaker than that of platinum [12][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price and Position Data: From September 16 to September 23, NYMEX platinum's closing price (active contract) increased by 1.10% to $1662.9 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased by 14.06% to 30119 lots, the position of the main contract increased by 0.22% to 83205 lots, and the management fund's net long position increased by 3638 lots to 18285 lots. NYMEX palladium's closing price (active contract) increased by 14.04% to $1462 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased by 41.07% to 9817 lots, the position of the main contract decreased by 1.78% to 21486 lots, and the management fund's net short position decreased by 15 lots to 5176 lots [9]. - Technical Analysis: NYMEX platinum's weekly line recorded 7 consecutive positive lines and then broke through upwards, but then fell back from around the 1730 resistance level. NYMEX palladium's main contract stabilized at the 1100 - dollar - per - ounce trend line after touching the rising trend line, and its technical chart is weaker than that of platinum. Both are expected to enter a consolidation range [12][15]. 3.2 Market Review - Price and Position Changes: NYMEX platinum's main contract price increased by 20.8% to $1662.9 per ounce, and the total position increased to 97978 lots. NYMEX palladium's main contract price increased by 25.01% to $1462 per ounce, and the total position increased to 20282 lots [21][24]. - Domestic Price and Spread: As of October 9, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 389.51 yuan per gram. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum rose to 12.94%, and that of palladium was 8.15%, both showing a significant rebound [27][31]. - CFTC Net Position: As of September 23, NYMEX platinum's management fund net long position increased by 3638 lots to 18285 lots, and NYMEX palladium's management fund net short position was 5176 lots [34][37]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - ETF Holdings: As of October 9, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.86 tons, and the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.55 tons [48][51]. - Inventory: As of October 9, CME platinum inventory was 20.83 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5509.32 kilograms, with the inventory level continuing to rise [55][60]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2025, the total platinum output of the top 15 mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2024. The total palladium output of the top 15 mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a decrease of 0.86% compared to 2024 [66][69]. - Demand: China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound compared to July. Palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline compared to July [72][75]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - Monthly Spread: The report provides multiple sets of data on the monthly spreads of NYMEX platinum and palladium, but no specific analysis of the spreads is given [91][99]. - Cross - Market Spread: The report shows the spread data between the London spot market and NYMEX for platinum and palladium, but no specific analysis is provided [106].