贵金属月报：现货驱动明显，等待价格充分回调-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of significant impact on the US dollar credit and the ongoing Fed rate - cut cycle, a medium - term long - position strategy for precious metals is recommended, with particular attention on silver with tight overseas spot supply. However, due to the recent decline after both gold and silver prices hit record highs, short - term correction risks should be monitored. It is advisable to hold existing long positions and open new long positions after sufficient price corrections. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 867 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 10646 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Market Performance: From September 2 to October 9, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 16.83% to $47.655 per ounce, hitting a record high of $49.965 per ounce. The price of the COMEX gold main contract rose 13.45% to $3991.1 per ounce, with a record high of $4081 per ounce. During the same period, the price of the Shanghai gold main contract rose 12.72% to 901.26 yuan/gram, reaching a record high of 921.4 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract price rose 13.28% to 11073 yuan/kilogram, hitting a record high of 11490 yuan/kilogram [11]. - Driving Factors: The credit of the US dollar was affected by the US government shutdown, and the Fed started the rate - cut cycle. Overseas silver spot was in short supply, driving the London silver price to break through the record high first [11]. - Technical Analysis: The Shanghai gold index broke upward at the end of the triangular convergence, showing a strong upward trend. After the holiday, the gap - up rise was not accompanied by an increase in positions, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with short - term attention on the integer support around 900 yuan/gram. The Shanghai silver index also showed a trend of upward movement. After hitting a record high on October 10, trading volume increased, and positions did not recover. It is expected to have room for further increase after consolidation [14][18]. 3.2 Market Review - Price and Position Changes: From September 2 to October 9, COMEX silver and gold main contract prices rose significantly. Affected by the domestic holiday, the external gold and silver positions were relatively strong. COMEX gold total positions increased 19.16% to 528,800 lots, and COMEX silver total positions increased 4.52% to 165,800 lots. Shanghai gold total positions decreased 3.38% to 426,900 lots, and Shanghai silver total positions decreased 7.86% to 784,100 lots [11][31][35]. - ETF Positions: As of October 9, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2292.75 tons, and the total position of external silver ETFs was 28125.13 tons, with the total position of gold and silver ETFs continuing to rise [40]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - Interest Rate Indicators: The Fed's monetary policy shows a trend of rate cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and another 25 - basis - point cut in December, with the terminal rate in 2025 reaching 3.50% - 3.75%. - Fed Balance Sheet: This month, the balance of the US Treasury TGA account increased, the deposit reserve scale decreased, and the US dollar liquidity tightened [59]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - CPI and PCE: In August, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.70%. The seasonally - adjusted CPI month - on - month was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%. The un - seasonally - adjusted core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted core CPI month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value [64]. - Employment Situation: As of the week ending September 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000. The latest weekly jobless claim data has not been released due to the US government shutdown [67]. - PMI and PPI: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, higher than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7; the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, lower than the expected 51.7 and the previous value of 52 [70]. - New Housing Data: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales in the US was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million [73]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The gold TD - SHFE basis is presented in a graph, showing the price difference between gold TD and SHFE gold [76]. - Silver Basis: The silver TD - SHFE basis is presented in a graph, showing the price difference between silver TD and SHFE silver [79]. - Internal - External Spreads: The internal - external spreads of gold and silver are presented in graphs, showing the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [83][85]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: Graphs show the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [90][92]. - Gold Inventories: Graphs show the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [94].