蛋白粕月报：供应宽松未改，偏弱运行-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive signs. The international soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market has a large real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the general direction of shorting on rebounds. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: In September, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. Argentina's price - cut sales to raise foreign exchange in the middle of the month pressured international soybean and soybean meal prices. The Brazilian premium quotation decreased slightly, and the US soybean listing season slightly suppressed the Brazilian premium. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and the Brazilian premium has some downward space. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether China will import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotation will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first react to the short - term supply pressure with a falling price, and then the import cost will stabilize after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, and the market will then trade based on the cost [10]. - Domestic Double - Meal: In September, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell, the basis rose, and the futures market converged towards the spot price. The oil mill's crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume decreased, and the pick - up volume was relatively high but decreased at the end of the month. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.6 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 30, the ship - booking volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 4.34 million tons in November. The current ship - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [10]. - Trading Strategy: The unilateral strategy is that the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating. The medium - term general direction is to short on rebounds due to the large domestic supply pressure and the unchanged expectation of a loose global soybean supply. The report did not provide specific suggestions for the arbitrage strategy [10][11][12]. 3.2 Supply - side - US Soybean Planting Progress: The report presents the planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans through multiple charts, which can be used to assess the growth situation of US soybeans [32][33]. - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America, which may affect soybean production [35][37][39]. - US Soybean Export Progress: The report shows the export contract volume, sales completion rate, and export shipment volume of US soybeans to China through multiple charts, which helps to understand the demand for US soybeans in the international market [50][51]. - China's Oilseed Import and Oil Mill Crushing: The report shows the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in China through charts, as well as the soybean and rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills, which reflects the supply situation of domestic oilseeds [53][54][55]. 3.3 Period - Spot Market - Spot Price: The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu through charts, which helps to understand the current price level of the spot market [18][19]. - Basis of Main Contracts: The report shows the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract through charts, which is important for analyzing the relationship between the futures and spot markets [21][22]. - Price Difference: The report shows the price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and between soybean meal 01 and rapeseed meal 01 through charts, which provides reference for arbitrage trading [23][24]. - Fund Position: The report shows the net long positions of management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal through charts, which reflects the market sentiment of institutional investors [26][29][30]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: The report shows the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic oilseeds [59][60]. - Protein Meal Inventory: The report shows the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic protein meals [62][63]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: The report shows the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas through charts, which reflects the profitability of the protein meal processing industry [64][65]. 3.5 Demand - side - Protein Meal Demand: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal through charts, which reflects the demand situation of the domestic protein meal market [66][67]. - Breeding Profit: The report shows the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers through charts, which reflects the profitability of the breeding industry and may affect the demand for protein meals [68][69].