甲醇月报：市场情绪转弱，盘面破位下跌-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Summary: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - Market Logic: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - Strategy: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - Price Changes: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - Production Profit: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - Inventory Situation: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - Production and Operating Rate: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - Imports: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - Price Spreads: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - Demand Projection: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - Downstream Products: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - Option Volume and Open Interest: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - Option Volatility: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - Industrial Chain Diagram: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].