新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-10）-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and screw steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong - side volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Logs: Range - bound volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [8] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, and there is still support under short - term supply disruptions. The core of the post - holiday market lies in steel demand. If steel demand in October falls short of expectations, a negative feedback loop may form [2]. - In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to run steadily, with production lower than last year. Coke demand is strong, but the second - round price increase has basically failed. Coke prices follow coking coal, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The static valuation of rebar is low, with supply pressure. Attention should be paid to demand recovery in October. The market may have a short - term replenishment rally, but the demand in the north will weaken. The RB2601 contract has support around 3000 yuan/ton [2]. - The glass market is boosted by news, with prices rising. Supply is stable, and there is short - term replenishment demand. In the long run, the real estate industry suppresses demand. The supply - demand relationship will improve if policies affect production [2]. - Stock index futures are generally optimistic, and long positions should be maintained. Treasury bonds are trending upward, and long positions should be held. Gold is expected to be strong - side volatile due to various factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4]. - Logs are expected to trade in a range, with supply tightening and cost support. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom due to cost support and weak demand. Double - offset paper prices are expected to be volatile, with stable supply and improving demand [6]. - Edible oils are in a wide - range volatile pattern, with different performances among varieties. Meal prices are expected to be volatile and bearish due to seasonal supply pressure and potential for Brazilian production increases. Live pig prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak demand [6][8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile, with supply affected by weather and demand improving slightly. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF prices are affected by various factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, and their trends vary [10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron Ore: Post - holiday rebound is supported by supply - side news. Steel mill profitability is high, and daily hot - metal output is around 241 - 242 tons. The key lies in steel demand in October [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coking coal supply in October is stable but lower than last year. Coke demand is strong, the first - round price increase has been implemented, and the second - round increase has failed. Coke prices follow coking coal [2]. - Rolled Steel and Screw Steel: The static valuation of rebar is low, supply pressure is high, and attention should be paid to demand recovery in October. There may be a short - term replenishment rally, but northern demand will weaken [2]. - Glass: The market is boosted by news, supply is stable, there is short - term replenishment demand, and long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate industry [2]. - Soda Ash: Information not explicitly summarized separately, but related to the glass industry and market conditions [2] Financial Industry - Stock Index Futures: The market is optimistic, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showing upward trends. Attention should be paid to policies such as price governance and rare - earth export controls [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is falling, and the market is trending upward. Long positions should be held [4]. - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to be strong - side volatile due to central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and other factors. Silver follows a similar trend [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is tightening, cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to trade in a range [6]. - Pulp: Cost supports prices, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Double - Offset Paper: Supply is stable, demand is expected to improve, and prices are expected to be volatile [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - Edible Oils: Different varieties show different performances, with a wide - range volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean planting and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Meals: Seasonal supply pressure and potential for Brazilian production increases make prices volatile and bearish [6][8]. - Live Pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to be volatile [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Prices are affected by oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends [10]