碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - On October 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased. Both supply and demand were strong. The inventory pressure of upstream producers was not significant. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction weakened, and the downstream inventory reached its peak. The demand inflection point had arrived. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Wait for the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the reserve report [1] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Futures contract closing prices: The closing price of the near - month contract was 72,740 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract was 72,880 yuan/ton [1] - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 361,093 lots (+43,635), and the open interest was 229,022 lots (-2,942) [1] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory was 42,379 tons (+670), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelting plants, downstream, and others decreased [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton (-60), the spread between the first - and second - continuous contracts was -40 yuan/ton (-20), and the spread between the second - and third - continuous contracts was 0 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 750 yuan/ton (-540) [1] Spot Market Data - Lithium ore prices: Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price was 843 US dollars/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 1,110 yuan/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,835 yuan/ton (-20), etc. [1] - Lithium compound prices: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) average price was 73,550 yuan/ton (0), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) average price was 71,300 yuan/ton (0), etc. [1] - Other battery material prices: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 90,450 yuan/ton (+3,500), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 122,350 yuan/ton (+1,500), etc. [1] Supply and Demand Information - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased [1] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The 3C product shipments were average. In September, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Industry News - German resource company Neptune Energy announced that an international evaluation company found that the lithium ore resources in the Altmark region of Saxony - Anhalt, Germany, had a lithium carbonate equivalent of 43 million tons. The company plans to produce battery - grade lithium from local brine lithium resources using the DLE direct lithium extraction method [1]