股指期货周报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly. The STAR 50 and ChiNext Index weakened significantly, falling more than 2%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with the CSI 500 being the most resilient. Market trading activity rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday. Overseas, the recall of employees by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics helps reduce the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Domestically, the good performance of service consumption during the National Day holiday is expected to boost the growth rate of social retail sales in October. Policy support for consumption is expected to further manifest. With the influence of policies and the earnings report season, market liquidity is expected to be further enhanced, and the A-share market still has some room for growth, with technology stocks remaining dominant. It is recommended to buy on dips and prioritize allocating IC and IM [5][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 fell 0.56% for the week, IH2512 fell 0.44%, IC2512 fell 0.33%, and IM2512 fell 0.89%. - Spot: The CSI 300 fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 fell 0.47%, the CSI 500 fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. - After the "Double Festival" of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the issuance of new funds reached a climax, with nearly 70 new funds scheduled to be issued in October. - From October 1st to 8th, the cumulative cross-regional personnel flow in the whole society is expected to exceed 2.432 billion person-times, a record high, with an average daily flow of 304 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data Domestic Main Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% for the week, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.26%, the STAR 50 fell 2.85%, the SME 100 fell 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.86% [14]. External Main Indices (as of Thursday) - The S&P 500 rose 0.29% for the week, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.19%, the Hang Seng Index fell 3.13%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 5.07% [15]. Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors showed mixed performance. Media and electronics sectors weakened significantly, while non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel sectors led the gains. - Industry main funds showed a net outflow collectively, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. - SHIBOR short-term interest rates declined, and the capital price was at a relatively low level. - This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.536 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 40.224 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 360.165 billion yuan [19][23][27][30]. Futures Basis and Net Positions - The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts fluctuated, with the IC and IM showing wide fluctuations. - Data on the net positions of the top 20, top 10, and top 5 in IF, IH, IC, and IM were provided [38][41][45][48]. Option - Related Data - Data on the trading volume distribution, holding volume distribution, trading and holding PCR, historical volatility, and implied volatility of SSE 50 options, CSI 300 options, and CSI 1000 options were provided [61][72][81]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with the CSI 500 being the most resilient. Market trading activity rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday. It is recommended to buy on dips and prioritize allocating IC and IM [89].