Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:11Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Rapeseed Oil - This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is approaching, and the high yield will put pressure on its price. The new progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is beneficial to the palm oil market, but the palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for seven consecutive months. The initial ruling on the anti - dumping policy of Canadian rapeseed in China has been announced, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, which will support its price. It is recommended to participate in a bullish way and pay attention to the China - Canada trade situation [8]. Rapeseed Meal - This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of U.S. soybeans is progressing actively, and the expected high yield restricts the price. China has not ordered U.S. soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure remains. The soybean issue will be discussed at the APEC summit. The U.S. old - crop soybean inventory is lower than expected. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and U.S. soybeans will still be restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal will decline due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. It is recommended to participate in the short - term and pay attention to China - Canada and China - U.S. trade policies [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in a bullish way and pay attention to China - Canada trade [7]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canadian high - yield pressure, Indonesia's policy impact, palm oil inventory increase in Malaysia, and China's anti - dumping policy support rapeseed oil price [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [11]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: U.S. soybean harvest, export pressure, inventory situation, and China's import restrictions, along with weakening demand, affect rapeseed meal price [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 313,988 lots, up 10,548 lots from before the holiday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, with a total position of 371,708 lots, up 18,844 lots from before the holiday [18]. - The top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures decreased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 9,199 lots [30][31]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis was +309 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,440 yuan/ton, falling from last week, and the basis was +49 yuan/ton [37][43]. Futures Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +459 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +65 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period in recent years [50]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts was 4.21, and the average spot price ratio was 4.07 [53]. Price Spread between Oils and Meals - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,759 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 623 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 531 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 430 yuan/ton [63][69]. 3. Industry Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in October, November, and December were 150,000, 450,000, and 505,000 tons respectively. The spot crushing profit was +1,457 yuan/ton. In the 40th week of 2025, the crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, down 33,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 2.45%. In August 2025, the import volume was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.52% [74][78][82][86]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. In August 2025, the import volume was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [91]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,506,000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan. As of the 39th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.54% [95][99]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In August 2025, the import volume was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.72% [103][107]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,927,200 tons [111]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20%, down 8.91% from last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114].