Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:05Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook for the medium to long term in the corn and corn starch markets. For corn, with the progress of the US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, and domestic new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, leading to a weakening of both US and domestic corn prices. For corn starch, increased supply of raw material corn, reduced downstream demand, high inventory, and substitution from other starches are causing the market to decline in tandem with corn [8][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - Market Review: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8] - Market Outlook: US corn inventory as of September 1 was higher than expected, and the harvest progress was about 29%. In China, the new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers and limited capacity of grain - using enterprises, resulting in price cuts. The futures price is weakly adjusted under the influence of weak spot prices [8] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2432 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - Market Outlook: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. Downstream demand has decreased, inventory is high, and substitution from other starches exists, causing the starch market to decline along with corn [12] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Corn 11 - month contract closed down with a total position of 692516 lots, down 4760 lots from before the holiday. Corn starch 11 - month contract also closed down with a total position of 134743 lots, down 15998 lots from before the holiday [16] - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures was - 30774, and for starch futures it was - 37899, with little change in net short positions [22] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn were 22700, and for corn starch were 8028 [28] Spot Price and Basis - As of October 9, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2318.24 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 11 - month active contract and the spot average was + 193 yuan/ton [33] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 268 yuan/ton [38] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was + 2 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] Futures Spread - The spread between the 11 - month starch and corn contracts was 307 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 446 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton from last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 71.16 yuan/ton. In the 41st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 268 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [58] 3. Industrial Chain Corn - Supply Side - As of October 3, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 21.5 tons, down 11.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 11.7 tons, unchanged from last week. The inventory of the four northern ports was 71.4 tons, down 1.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 37.1 tons, up 14.70 tons week - on - week [48] - In August 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 4.00 tons, down 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and 2.00 tons from last month [66] - As of October 9, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from last week, a 2.86% week - on - week and 6.06% year - on - year decline [70] - Demand Side - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 42447 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 4042 million, down 1 million month - on - month, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 3900 million [74] - As of September 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 236.57 yuan/head [77] - As of October 9, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 196 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 224 yuan/ton in Henan, - 107 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 156 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch - Supply Side - As of October 8, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 233.4 tons, a 14.64% increase [86] - From October 2 to 8, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 54.45 tons, up 1.78 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 26.8 tons, up 1.22 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from last week [90] - As of October 8, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 119.1 tons, up 4.30 tons from last week, a 3.75% weekly, 4.57% monthly, and 31.17% year - on - year increase [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.72%, down 1.66% from 11.38% before the holiday. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being slightly above the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]