Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:05Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Shanghai tin market, forecasting that tin prices will fluctuate and tend to be strong due to limited supply and falling inventories [2] - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin opened high and went high, with a weekly increase of 4.10% and an amplitude of 3.80%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 286,350 yuan/ton [7] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, or go long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support at 283,000 [7] Group 2: Market Outlook Macroeconomic Aspect - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasized inflation risks and said that interest rate cuts need to be cautious. Fed's "Number Three" Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year and does not think the economy is on the verge of recession [7] Fundamental Aspect - Indonesia's President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and with the approval of mining licenses, there are signs of short - term supply improvement. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [7] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the post - National Day price increase of Shanghai tin, the overall price has risen significantly, suppressing spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude and have suspended purchasing activities. The market feedback shows no or only a small amount of just - in - time demand transactions. The spot premium has been slightly reduced to 250 yuan/ton, and LME inventories are showing a decline while the spot premium remains stable [7] Technical Aspect - The increase in positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 290,000 [7] Group 3: Spot and Futures Market Price and Premium - As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 286,540 yuan/ton, a rise of 12,830 yuan/ton or 4.69% from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was $36,820/ton, a fall of $90/ton or 0.24% from October 3. The spot premium is weak [9][12] - As of October 10, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.33, an increase of 0.1 from September 25. As of October 9, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.82, a rise of 0.05 from September 30 [17] Position - As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,448 lots, a decrease of 269 lots from September 26, 2025. The position of Shanghai tin was 71,221 lots, an increase of 17,271 lots or 32.01% from September 25 [23] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Supply Side Import and Production - In August 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 10,267.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to August this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 82,673.45 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.43% [27] - In August 2025, the refined tin production was 14,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. From January to August, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.83% [28] Processing Fees - On October 10, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 9, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from October 9, 2025 [35] Import Profit and Loss - As of October 10, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,951.1 yuan/ton, a fall of 25,691.59 yuan/ton from October 3, 2025 [40] Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,410 tons, a decrease of 205 tons or 7.84% from October 3. The total tin inventory was 5,879 tons, a decrease of 550 tons or 8.55% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 5,809 tons, a decrease of 467 tons or 7.44% from September 25 [46] Group 5: Industrial Chain - Demand Side Semiconductor Index - On October 9, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,840.2, a rise of 213.82 or 3.23% from October 2 [49] Electronic Industry Output - From January to August 2025, the integrated circuit output was 34,291,232.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,840,674.7 million pieces or 20.53% compared with the same period last year [50] Tin - Plated Sheet - As of August 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, the same as in July 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,624.98 tons, a decrease of 39,395.07 tons or 19.12% from July [54]