Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:00Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation includes the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the release of a price - order governance announcement, and a series of "Zhong Cai Wen" articles in People's Daily. Overseas, Israel has approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement. Supply decreased during the National Day due to mine maintenance, inventory has been rising for three weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal is bearish. It is expected that the coking coal futures main contract price will fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract will fluctuate between 1590 - 1730 [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 183.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 26.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 1969.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 56.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 241.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.46 million tons [8]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors may provide short - term support. The demand in September was average, and it is expected that October will not be better. The crude steel output will continue to decline. Coal inventory is expected to rise seasonally, and coke profit has limited room for improvement. The coking coal futures main contract price is expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract between 1590 - 1730 [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Market - As of October 10, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 809,100 lots, an increase of 63,000 lots compared to before the holiday. The coking coal 5 - 1 contract spread was 98.0, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 points. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts was 200 lots, a week - on - week increase of 200 lots. The ratio of the January coke - coking coal futures contract was 1.44, unchanged from the previous week [15][19]. 2.2 Spot Market - As of October 9, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 10, the coking coal basis was 16.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 160.5 points [27]. 3. Industry Chain Situation 3.1 Production - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.6%. The daily average raw coal output was 183.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.15%. The daily refined coal output was 26.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons [31]. 3.2 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased by 53.60 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased by 69.15 million tons. The import coking coal inventory at 16 ports increased by 5.00 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.93 million tons [31][35][39][51]. 3.3 Upstream - In 2025, China's raw coal output in August was 39,049.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The coking coal output in August was 3,696.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. In 2024, China imported 540 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal decreased by 8% year - on - year [56][60].