偏空情绪主导，能化偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend as the bullish factors of the typhoon are digested and the market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure under a weak macro - expectation [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend due to the suppression of the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend because of the US federal government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the potential end of the Palestine - Israel conflict leading to the loss of geopolitical premium [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons (1.01%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory remained flat, while general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points; for general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 3.11 percentage points [8]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. For full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year, due to holiday shutdowns for maintenance [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles in August 2025, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the previous year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% increase year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight increase of 0.87% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.82% month - on - month, and a 1.39% decrease from the previous year. The weekly average methanol output was 2.033 billion tons, a significant increase of 160,300 tons week - on - week, 113,700 tons month - on - month, and 156,200 tons from the previous year [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a slight decrease of 0.43% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a 5.03% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a slight decrease of 0.46% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a 4.94 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.42 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 146 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and 127 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.273 billion tons, a slight increase of 49,000 tons week - on - week, 57,000 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons from the previous year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week, 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons from the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a slight decrease of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 57 from the previous year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant increase of 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [11]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a significant increase of 3.715 million barrels week - on - week and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a slight decrease of 763,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a slight increase of 285,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a 1.0 - percentage - point increase week - on - week, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and a 5.7 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) from the August average. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant decrease of 9,903 contracts week - on - week and a slight increase of 162 contracts (0.08%) from the August average [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,315 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,252 yuan/ton | + 2 yuan/ton | 2,307 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 461.9 yuan/barrel | - 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 10.5 yuan/barrel | + 9.5 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][33]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45].