美豆表现偏弱，连粕继续筑底

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report in September showed higher-than-expected yield, production, and inventory estimates for US soybeans, with a neutral to bearish impact. The overall dry and rainy conditions in the US soybean-producing areas were unfavorable for the growth of late-sown soybeans but beneficial for the harvest of early-sown soybeans. The US soybean harvest continued to progress, but US soybean exports remained weak. The Conab report in Brazil indicated that the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 177.67 million tons. Multiple bearish factors pressured US soybeans to fluctuate lower. In China, the sufficient arrival of soybeans in September supported domestic supply, and the oil mill operating rate remained at a high level. Meanwhile, the recent downstream replenishment was sluggish, resulting in a loose supply and demand situation for soybean meal in the spot market, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills continued to accumulate. The decline in US soybeans led to a weak cost of imported soybeans. Coupled with the large-scale procurement of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal in China in September, the gap in China's soybean meal for the far month decreased, and the soybean meal price fluctuated lower. It is still necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiation situation in the future. China's soybean meal is still bearish, but the short-term decline may be limited, and the Dalian soybean meal will continue the bottoming trend. The strategy is to wait and see temporarily [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1000.75 cents per bushel, down 52.25 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.96%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan per ton, down 127 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.16% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The US soybean balance sheet is neutral to bearish, with the planting area increased by 200,000 to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 0.1 to 53.5 bushels per acre, the production increased by 9 million to 4.301 billion bushels, the crush increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the exports decreased by 20 million to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased by 10 million to 300 million bushels [10][17]. - The US soybean-producing areas are experiencing high temperatures and little rain. In the next two weeks, there will be a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in the US soybean-producing areas. As of October 3, about 37% of the US soybean-producing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year. As of the week of September 28, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 20%. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [10][20]. - US soybean exports are relatively low. As of the week of September 18, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 724,000 tons, compared with 923,000 tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, compared with 2,000 tons in the previous week [10][25]. - Brazilian soybean premiums are oscillating at high levels. The estimated exports of Brazilian soybeans in October are 7.12 million tons, an increase of 2.69 million tons year-on-year. As the Brazilian soybean inventory decreases, the near-month soybean premiums in Brazil are oscillating at high levels [10][30]. - Supply - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 609,000 tons from July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year-on-year [10][33]. - Demand - In September, the soybean meal crush decreased to 9.359 million tons, a decrease of 18.37% month-on-month and an increase of 789,100 tons or 9.21% year-on-year. The soybean meal transactions decreased to 3.1313 million tons, a decrease of 35.44%, and the pick-up increased to 4.4047 million tons, an increase of 9.97% [10][40]. - Inventory - In the 39th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills across the country increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, an increase of 252,500 tons or 3.63% from the previous week and an increase of 905,100 tons or 14.38% year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons or 4.86% from the previous week and a decrease of 37,300 tons or 3.04% year-on-year [10][45]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - The report mentions the basis and spreads of soybean meal, including the regional basis of soybean meal (Jiangsu), the oil-meal ratio, the 1-5 spread of soybean meal, and the soybean meal-rapeseed meal spread, but specific data and analysis are not provided [46]