Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus will continue to dominate the oil market. With the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but the extremely low level of crude oil inventories provides bottom support. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate mainly in the range of WTI $60 - $65 per barrel, similar to September. In the medium to long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds caused by geopolitical disturbances. For safety, virtual call options can be used to hedge the risk of upward breakthrough due to sudden geopolitical events. The surplus pattern will further intensify in the next six months, and crude oil is still considered to be in a downward trend. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined its production increase route, once oil prices rise, it will boost OPEC+'s enthusiasm for increasing production, which will always suppress the upside of oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis - Price Trend: In September, the oil market was mainly driven by geopolitical and supply surplus factors, with prices fluctuating between WTI $60 - $65 per barrel. Geopolitical concerns pushed oil prices to challenge the upper pressure level, but they failed to break through effectively. When concerns about surplus intensified, potential geopolitical risks and low inventories supported oil prices above $60. As of September 30, the monthly average settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $63.57 per barrel (-3.21%) and $67.58 per barrel (-3.54%) respectively; the monthly average settlement price of INE SC was 486.19 yuan per barrel (-1.01%) [8]. - Financial Aspect: In September, the economic data released by the United States showed that inflation was controllable but employment was weak. At the beginning of the month, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, and the Fed cut interest rates as scheduled at the September FOMC meeting and sent a dovish signal. As of September 30, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April, reaching 6753.72; the VIX volatility was 16.3, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first implemented and still at a low level this month [13]. - Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index: The crude oil ETF volatility and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 30, the crude oil volatility ETF was 31.53, and the dollar index was 98.849. In September, the drivers of the crude oil market were intertwined with geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental factors. Overall, the crude oil volatility remained at the bottom, lacking a strong driver to break through the oscillation range. The employment data released in September was worse than expected, combined with the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the dollar index to oscillate at a low level [17]. - Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: The net long positions of WTI funds increased, but the speculative net long positions decreased. As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.19 million contracts month - on - month to 2.65 million contracts, a monthly increase of 7.6%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 0.84 million contracts to 7.65 million contracts, a monthly decrease of 9.9%. There were obvious differences in the market, and the long positions of funds showed characteristics of left - hand side layout. Oil prices generally continued to oscillate within a range, and the trading volume had decreased significantly [20]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - OPEC Production: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 47.8 barrels per day to 2794.8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 15.4 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were implementing their submitted compensatory production cut plans [25]. - OPEC+ Production Cut Situation: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 2328 barrels per day, an increase of 19 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Among them, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, but the overall over - production amplitude of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month, perhaps because the organization's requirement to produce according to the quota began to have a certain effect. Seven countries updated their compensatory production cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [29]. - Saudi and Iranian Production: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 970.9 barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 2.7 barrels per day to 321.8 barrels per day. Sanctions on Iran in late July and the 12 - day war between Israel and Iran in June hindered Iran's subsequent oil production, and the impact of geopolitics has begun to be reflected in its production [33]. - Russian Supply: According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in August was 917.3 barrels per day, an increase of 5.3 barrels per day compared with the previous month; according to the IEA's statistical caliber, its production was 928 barrels per day, an increase of 8 barrels per day compared with the previous month. Under the production increase plan, production is gradually recovering but still at a relatively low level [41]. - US Production: As of the week of October 3, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 10 to 422 compared with the previous month, a year - on - year decrease of 57. The high oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter boosted producers' sentiment, and the number of drilling rigs stopped falling. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency enables producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. As of the week of October 3, US crude oil production rebounded, increasing by 12.4 barrels per day to 1362.9 barrels per day compared with the previous week and month, a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The low oil prices in the first half of the year had suppressed producers' enthusiasm and compressed the increase in US oil production. However, the high oil prices since June seem to have boosted production enthusiasm again, and US crude oil production has continuously refreshed the historical record since last year in September [45][48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - US Petroleum Product Demand: As of the week of October 3, the total average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 2089.7 barrels per day, an increase of 55.3 barrels per day compared with the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%. September is a period of seasonal weakening in oil product demand, and the weakening support of demand for oil prices has caused the oscillation center of oil prices to move down. In October, there will be a phased rebound peak in oil product demand [52]. - US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data: From September 5 to October 3, US crude oil production increased by 13.4 barrels per day, consumption increased by 0.9 barrels per day, refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. Gasoline production increased by 16.6 barrels per day, and the implied demand decreased by 12.5 barrels per day. Distillate production decreased by 6 barrels per day, and the implied demand increased by 1.7 barrels per day [56]. - US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Consumption: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the average demand for gasoline in the US increased by 10.3 barrels per day to 880.2 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%; the average demand for distillates increased by 24.2 barrels per day to 383 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 1.4 barrels per day to 164 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.92% [57]. - US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: As of October 8, the gasoline crack spread was $17.65 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.68 per barrel. In September, the crack spread trends were in line with the seasonality of each oil product. Gasoline entered the seasonal off - season as expected, and the spread continued to decline. The demand for distillates was still in the seasonal recovery period, and the crack spread performed better [61]. - European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: As of October 8, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.31 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.98 per barrel. In the first half of the third quarter, European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and peak - season restocking demand. The overall oil products were in a relatively warm atmosphere driven by diesel, and the crack spreads continued to rise and remained at a high level in September [65]. - China's Oil and Refinery Situation: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 439.1 million tons year - on - year to 6346 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 39.2 million tons year - on - year to 4949.2 million tons (+0.8%). Since the beginning of this year, the escalation of the Middle East situation has raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply has been much higher than the same period in previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - Institutional Forecasts for Demand Growth: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth. OPEC maintained its previous forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 90 barrels per day (↑), 74 barrels per day (↑), and 130 barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 128 barrels per day, 70 barrels per day, and 140 barrels per day respectively [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - US Crude Oil Inventory: In September, US commercial crude oil inventories first decreased and then increased. As of October 3, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.59%; SPR inventories increased by 285,000 barrels to 406.99 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels [74]. - Inventory Changes: As of the four - week period ending on October 3, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 71.3 barrels per day to 281.3 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 52.1 barrels per day to 1629.7 barrels per day compared with the end of the previous month, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded by 1 percentage point to 92.4% last week [78]. - WTI Monthly Spread: The WTI monthly spread generally maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.01 per barrel. The monthly spread indicator continued to weaken. As the demand for refined oil products in the US gradually peaks, the support of the peak season for oil prices begins to weaken. At the same time, with OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may remain at a low level and rebound periodically during geopolitical disturbances [81]. - Brent Monthly Spread: The Brent monthly spread still maintained a backwardation structure. As of September 30, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.99 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.88 per barrel. Similar to the WTI monthly spread, the Brent monthly spread also showed a contango pattern but was relatively stronger. This is because the sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict have made the supply outlook in the European region more tense [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and the demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, which continued to increase compared with the previous month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast in this period, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, it is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greater this year [88]. - Term Structure: The US fundamental data indicates that the off - season has arrived, and the term structure continues to flatten. However, due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent still has a tight expectation, and the strong crack spread can support a more robust contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [91].
原油：过剩和地缘交织，油价震荡运行
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:15