钢材&铁矿石日报2025年10月10日：市场情绪尚可，钢矿震荡企稳-20251010

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Report - Report Industry: Steel & Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Rebar: The main contract futures price rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.52%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is contracting while demand is weak. The fundamentals have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory increased significantly during the holiday, putting pressure on steel prices. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.37%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, while demand is weak. The fundamentals are continuously weakening. The inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the price of hot - rolled coils is under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance after the holiday, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract futures price fluctuated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.02%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, the sentiment in the commodity market is warm after the holiday, and demand shows some resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level fluctuating trend under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Price Order Governance: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation recently issued an announcement on governing disorderly price competition and maintaining a good market price order. Operators of goods and services subject to market - regulated prices should follow the principles of fairness, legality, and good faith, and exercise their independent pricing power in accordance with the law [6]. - Real Estate Sales: In September, the total sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. From January to September, the total sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises were 260.659 billion yuan, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared with January - August [7]. - Anti - dumping Ruling: On September 30, 2025, Brazil's Foreign Trade Commission's Executive Management Committee (GECEX) issued Resolution No. 789 of 2025, making a positive final ruling on the second anti - dumping sunset review of certain flat - rolled steel products. China will be subject to an anti - dumping duty of $678.51 per ton for 5 years [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,220 yuan, and the national average is 3,262 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average is 3,399 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,960 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,070 yuan [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 789 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 807 yuan. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 9.57 yuan and 24.16 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) is 104.91 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 105.85 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Product | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,103 | 0.52 | 3,124 | 3,093 | 1,039,362 | 215,679 | 1,926,153 | 18,024 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,285 | 0.37 | 3,311 | 3,276 | 414,002 | 44,214 | 1,397,651 | 23,065 | | Iron ore | - | 795.0 | 1.02 | 802.0 | 791.0 | 224,798 | - 15,968 | 476,191 | 16,626 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils (steel mills + social inventory) [14][16][19]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, the seasonal inventory of 45 ports in China, and the inventory of 247 steel mills are presented [21][22][26]. - Steel Mill Production: The report shows charts on the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profit - making steel mill ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [28][31][30][34]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. The weekly output decreased by 3.62 tons, and the inventory was high. Demand was weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 1.40 tons but remained at a high level. The inventory was high, and demand was weak. The weekly apparent demand decreased by 33.64 tons. Although the production of cold - rolled products provided some support, there were concerns about demand. The price is expected to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the holiday [35]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand situation has changed. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills remained at a high level, but the resilience of demand is expected to weaken. The supply pressure is increasing as the port arrivals increased and overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [36].