社会服务行业深度报告：现制饮品行业系列报告二：从“规模之战”到“价值之锚”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature phase, with increasing competition leading to a shift from high-priced, heavily marketed products to a focus on frequency and sustainable operations. The performance of listed tea companies will increasingly depend on their strategic alignment with lower-tier markets [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a shift towards enhancing consumer frequency. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a transition from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][11] - The focus for value growth in tea companies will be on product innovation, strengthening supply chains, and expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][53] Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The new tea beverage industry has seen rapid growth since 2015, with market size increasing from 1,878 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.47% [11] - The industry is shifting from price upgrades to frequency enhancements as the main growth driver, with a notable increase in market concentration due to intensified competition [1][15] - The average per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China is only 22 cups, compared to 323 cups in the US, indicating significant room for growth in consumption frequency [22] Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for new tea companies has shown significant divergence, with early entrants like Nayuki Tea and Cha Baidao facing stock price declines, while companies like Mixue Group have performed strongly post-IPO [2][28] - The IPO performance of new tea companies has been mixed, with some experiencing severe declines post-listing, highlighting the market's cautious sentiment towards high-end brands [28][30] Corporate Value Growth - Companies are focusing on product innovation by enhancing health attributes through functional ingredients, strengthening supply chains for cost efficiency, and exploring international markets for growth [3][53] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming leveraging their supply chain capabilities and market positioning to achieve superior profitability and cost control [49][50]