Guoxin Securities·2025-10-11 09:34Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance better than the market by over 10% [5][63]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with a 13.3% year-on-year increase in operating income to HKD 40 billion and a 10.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to HKD 22.2 billion in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. - Non-interest income has significantly increased, with net fee income rising by 25.8% and other non-interest income growing by 99.1%, driven by improved market conditions and increased demand for wealth management services [2][3]. - The company maintains a stable asset scale, with total assets growing by 10.0% year-on-year to HKD 4.4 trillion as of June 2025 [1][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The annualized return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 is 12.9%, up by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The average net interest margin (NIM) decreased to 1.34%, down 12 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][33]. - The company’s total deposits increased by 5.8% year-to-date to HKD 2.87 trillion, while total loans grew by 2.0% to HKD 1.71 trillion [1][7]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) generation rate rose to 0.40%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, but the overall asset quality remains strong compared to industry standards [2][33]. - The company’s NPL ratio is 1.02%, which is lower than the industry average, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 86% [2][33]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is HKD 38.9 billion, HKD 40.2 billion, and HKD 42.7 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 3.4%, and 6.2% respectively [3][56]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be HKD 3.68, HKD 3.81, and HKD 4.04 [3][56]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable price range for the company's stock between HKD 43.6 and HKD 48.4, indicating a potential upside of approximately 18% to 31% from the closing price of HKD 36.86 on October 10, 2025 [3][63].