债市策略思考：把握事件冲击后的调仓机会

Core Insights - The short-term bond market is expected to experience a rare recovery opportunity, suggesting a shift in focus from 30-year government bonds to 10-year government bonds for better positioning [1][3] - The overall trend of a bull market in equities is unlikely to end, and significant adjustments in the market may present more cost-effective entry points for investments [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Threats and Market Reactions - The recent announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 is perceived as more of a threat than a practical measure, with the actual outcome remaining uncertain [1][11] - The financial market has likely developed a learning effect, viewing this event as a one-time shock rather than a trend, contrasting with the market dynamics observed in April [1][11] - The current stock-bond environment has changed significantly since April, indicating that the previous strong bond market sentiment may be weakening [1][11] Group 2: Understanding the 30-10 Year Bond Spread - The 30-10 year government bond spread has widened significantly since August 2025, breaking out of its previous range and indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][13] - The bond market has experienced two substantial adjustments in 2025, leading to a breakdown of the previously successful buy-and-hold strategy for long-term bonds [2][19] - The current environment suggests that the risk associated with 30-year bonds is relatively higher compared to other asset classes like equities and commodities, which may offer better returns [2][20] Group 3: Tactical Adjustments in Bond Investments - The recent performance of 30-year government bonds has lagged behind that of 10-year bonds, indicating a need for tactical adjustments in bond portfolios [3][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of reallocating investments from 30-year to 10-year bonds to capitalize on the upcoming recovery in the bond market [3][28] - The anticipated adjustments in the equity market may also provide more attractive entry points for investors [3][28]