农产品研究跟踪系列报告（178）：贸易冲突支撑豆粕价格，国内外肉牛价格Q4有望共振上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the pig farming sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aquaculture, benefiting companies like Haida Group [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price for beef at 61.13 yuan/kg as of October 10, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.05% [2]. - The report expects a significant acceleration in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg [2]. Swine - The report notes a decrease in pig prices to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and 38.45% year-on-year, but anticipates a long-term price stabilization due to industry restructuring [1][3]. Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for white chickens, with prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1]. - Yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with prices for various types of yellow chicken ranging from 5.00 to 8.70 yuan/kg [1]. Feed and Ingredients - Soybean meal prices are supported by supply-demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2]. - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with current prices at 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pig, poultry, pet, and feed sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, MuYuan Co., and HaiDa Group [3][4].