Huachuang Securities·2025-10-11 14:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][70]. Core Insights - In the first eight months of 2025, China's total vehicle exports reached 4.26 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, but the export volume now accounts for approximately 20.2% of China's total vehicle wholesale [2][10]. - The export of new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 35% of total vehicle exports, with 1.51 million NEVs exported in the same period, significantly up from 22% in 2024 [2][9]. - Major contributors to the export growth include Chery, BYD, and SAIC, with Chery exporting 800,000 units (19% share) and BYD exporting 630,000 units (15% share), marking a substantial increase from previous years [9][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Export Performance - China's total vehicle exports in the first eight months of 2025 reached 4.26 million units, up 13% year-on-year, with a monthly export volume consistently above 500,000 units since March 2025, peaking over 600,000 units in August [2][10]. - The share of vehicle exports in total vehicle wholesale has increased by approximately 1.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. Breakdown by Structure - In terms of vehicle type, commercial vehicles accounted for 15% of exports, while passenger vehicles made up 85%, showing little change from 2024 [9]. - The NEV export volume reached 1.51 million units, with a notable increase in market penetration, particularly driven by domestic manufacturers like BYD [9][10]. Breakdown by Brand - Chery led the exports with 800,000 units, followed by BYD with 630,000 units, and SAIC with 330,000 units. The rankings reflect a significant rise in BYD's market share from 7% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [9][10]. Breakdown by Region - Mexico was the largest market for Chinese vehicle exports, receiving 360,000 units, followed by the UAE and Belgium with 320,000 and 290,000 units, respectively [9][10]. - The share of Chinese vehicles in overseas markets has increased from approximately 2% in 2020 to 9.4% in the first eight months of 2025 [9][10]. Export Value - The export value of complete vehicles and auto parts reached $84.29 billion and $64.46 billion, respectively, accounting for 3.4% and 2.6% of China's total exports [9][10].