棉花棉纱周报：新棉陆续开秤，收购价格上涨回升-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the cottonseed price has rebounded and the decline of cotton price has slowed down, the upcoming concentrated listing of new cotton will relieve the low inventory situation, and with the weakening downstream demand, the upward drive of cotton price is insufficient. In the long - term, due to the expansion of domestic textile production capacity and relatively low import quotas, the supply - demand of cotton in the new year may still be tight [1][4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - In late September, adverse weather in Xinjiang delayed the cotton picking. After the National Day holiday, the machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang started to be purchased. The purchase price first decreased and then increased with small fluctuations. In mid - and late October, the concentrated listing of new cotton will put pressure on cotton prices. The downstream peak season is weakening, and the cotton price rebound power is poor. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply - demand may still be tight due to import quota limitations [1][4][17] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The trend of cotton is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 fluctuating between 13,000 - 13,600. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The short - term basis is stable and may weaken later. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, when inventory is high, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [21] 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,325, down 205 (- 1.52%); 05 closed at 13,375, down 160 (- 1.18%); 09 closed at 13,550, down 160 (- 1.17%). Spot: CC Index 3128B was 14,775, up 22 (0.15%); 2227B was 12,932, up 21 (0.16%); 2129B was 15,039, up 28 (0.19%). Spinning yarn: futures price was 19,375, down 405 (- 2.05%); spot price was 20,460, down 120 (- 0.58%) [22][24] 3.2 This Week's Important Information 3.2.1 Bullish Information - As of September 26, the national new cotton picking progress was 1.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year; the delivery rate was 26%, up 10.3 percentage points year - on - year; the processing rate was 22%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. On October 8, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.02 yuan/kg [25] 3.2.2 Bearish Information - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.14 million hectares, up 7.5% year - on - year; the total output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, up 7.0% year - on - year [26] 3.2.3 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the output determination in Xinjiang, as well as the release of the USDA report, the growth and export of US cotton [27] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After the National Day holiday, funds flowed back. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in positions and price on the first trading day after the holiday, but the upward pressure was large due to hedging by some ginneries, and the rebound was weak [31] 3.3.2 Month - spread Structure - The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. Near - month contracts are weak due to supply increase and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34] 3.3.3 Basis Structure - This week, the cotton basis was stable as new cotton had not been fully supplied. On October 10, the basis of new machine - picked cotton in different regions of Xinjiang was in a certain range [38] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technology, Xinjiang's spinning mills have cost advantages and profits. Before the National Day, domestic spinning mills' profits improved. Recently, Xinjiang mills still have good profits, while those in the inland have slightly declined [40] 3.4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been high, but import quotas are tight. The additional 200,000 - ton quota has limited impact on the market, and the current import profit is still at a relatively high level [43] 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, but the output increase may narrow. The estimated import volume is 1.1 million tons. Domestic consumption is not overly pessimistic, with stable domestic demand and uncertain foreign sales [46][47]