宏观数据预测专题：三季度经济金融“成绩单”前瞻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth momentum in the second half of 2025 has slowed down. The economic data in September and the performance in the third quarter are crucial for assessing the policy space in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters will be around 4.8% and 4.6% respectively, and the annual economic growth target of about 5% is expected to be achieved [74][75]. - Different economic indicators in September show different trends. Industrial added - value, exports, and new credit are expected to increase, while consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are expected to remain negative. Social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and imports are expected to have limited growth [2][3][4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Added - value - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added - value in September will be 5.4%. The production PMI in September rose to a six - month high, and the procurement volume index increased, indicating a marginal recovery in production enthusiasm and economic sentiment. However, considering the possible weakening of policy effects in the fourth quarter, the growth rate may slow down compared to the third quarter, with an expected year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% in the fourth quarter [2][22]. 3.2 Social Retail Sales (社零) - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in September will be 3.2%. The real - estate post - cycle consumption has marginal improvement but cannot strongly support the growth rate. The subsidy effect of the "trade - in" policy on cars is weakening, and service consumption may decline. In the fourth quarter, due to the weakening policy effect, slow income growth, and high base effect of the previous year, the year - on - year growth rate is expected to be about 3.8% [3][27][31]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - It is expected that the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in September will be 0.2%. Infrastructure investment may decline due to factors such as the slowdown of new special bond issuance. Real - estate investment continues to be weak, while manufacturing investment maintains resilience. In the fourth quarter, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to continue to run at a low level, around 0.5% [4][36][41]. 3.4 Trade 3.4.1 Exports - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of exports in September will be 4.7%, and the annual growth rate will be 3.75%. In September, the export growth rate is expected to rise slightly as the Sino - US tariff issue has not escalated and external demand remains resilient. However, in the fourth quarter, due to potential tariff increases, weakening external demand, and a high base in the previous year, the export growth rate is expected to turn negative [45][56]. 3.4.2 Imports - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of imports in September will be 1.2%, and the annual growth rate will be - 0.5%. The import growth rate in September is expected to be basically flat. Although the import demand is gradually recovering, the annual import growth rate is expected to be slightly negative due to potential global tariff increases [58]. 3.5 Inflation 3.5.1 CPI - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of CPI in September will be - 0.1%. In September, pork prices continued to decline, while agricultural product prices rebounded. The CPI in the third quarter is expected to be the lowest point of the year, and the year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 0.4% [6][62]. 3.5.2 PPI - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in September will be - 2.4%. The PPI in September is expected to show a trend of "month - on - month improvement and narrowing year - on - year decline", but the sustainability of the improvement needs to be observed based on domestic and external demand changes. The year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be around - 2.2% [6][69]. 3.6 GDP - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter will be 4.8%. The economic and financial situation in the third quarter shows a mild recovery, but the manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range. The economic growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to slow down, with the third and fourth quarters having year - on - year growth rates of about 4.8% and 4.6% respectively [74]. 3.7 Social Financing and Credit 3.7.1 Credit - It is expected that the new credit in September will be 1.6 trillion yuan. In September, as a traditional large credit month, the bill interest rate fluctuated upwards, indicating an improvement in credit supply. The new credit in various sectors shows different trends, with corporate short - term and long - term loans expected to decrease year - on - year, while household short - term loans are expected to increase year - on - year and household long - term loans are expected to decrease year - on - year [8][82][97]. 3.7.2 Social Financing - It is expected that the new social financing in September will be 3.2 trillion yuan. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decrease year - on - year, while the net financing of corporate bonds is expected to increase. Non - standard financing is expected to have a limited increase, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 8.6%, a decline from August [8][98][106].