国信期货热卷周报：旺季持续累库，热卷压力较大-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - From the supply - demand situation, hot - rolled coil demand has certain resilience, building material demand is weak, and overall steel demand is on the weak side. Due to the anti - involution policy, the market has strong expectations for future steel production cuts. Steel maintains high production with certain production profits, and inventory continues to increase, facing great pressure. High steel production leads to strong raw material demand, providing some cost support for steel prices. Given the large current steel inventory, attention should be paid to when steel production cuts will occur. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term [55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.走势回顾 (Trend Review) - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract trend: This week, the hot - rolled coil main contract showed short - term narrow - range fluctuations and continued to be weak [9]. - Hot - rolled coil spot trend: The spot market showed weak fluctuations [14]. 3.2.基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - Hot - rolled coil futures - spot price difference trend: The 01 basis is 64, the 05 basis is 69, and the 10 basis is - 20 [19]. - Cold - hot spread: Not provided in the document 3.3.供需分析 (Supply - Demand Analysis) - Hot - rolled coil profit: The production profit is 124, the 01 contract's on - disk profit is 116, the 05 contract's on - disk profit is 135, and the 10 contract's on - disk profit is 130 [32]. - Hot - rolled coil production: The hot - rolled coil production is 323.29, the cold - rolled production is 88.07, the rebar production is 203.4, and the five major steel products production is 863.31 [34]. - Raw materials: Not provided in the document - Hot - rolled coil inventory: The hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9, the cold - rolled coil inventory is 186.3, the rebar inventory is 659.64, and the five major steel products inventory is 1600.72 [41]. - Terminal demand: Not provided in the document - Export: Exports are flat month - on - month but remain strong year - on - year [51]. 3.4.后市展望 (Future Outlook) - Supply - demand situation: Hot - rolled coil demand has certain resilience, building material demand is weak, and overall steel demand is on the weak side. There are strong expectations for future steel production cuts. Steel maintains high production with certain production profits, and inventory continues to increase, facing great pressure. High steel production leads to strong raw material demand, providing some cost support for steel prices. Attention should be paid to when steel production cuts will occur. - Operation strategy: Participate in the short - term [55].