棉花周报：郑棉上方承压，新棉逐步上市-20251012

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton Under Pressure, New Cotton Gradually Coming to Market - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Domestically, after the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with fluctuations, reaching a maximum of 13,420 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton increased slightly. As the purchase of seed cotton fully unfolds, the supply pressure gradually increases, and hedging currently has a small profit, significantly suppressing Zhengzhou cotton. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton tried to rebound but was pressured around 13,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton [53]. - Internationally, due to the U.S. government shutdown and data suspension, the market sentiment is cautious, and market fluctuations may be limited before data resumes. Fundamentally, countries such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh face significant resistance in exporting cotton products and clothing to the U.S. due to substantial tariff increases. As a countermeasure, they will increase purchases of Brazilian cotton, and U.S. cotton exports face certain challenges. It is expected that U.S. cotton will be under pressure and remain weak [53]. Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. ICE cotton futures continued to be weak, with a weekly decline of 1.45% [9]. Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose by 17 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 4 yuan/ton [13]. Import Situation - In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons [18]. Inventory Situation - As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons compared to the second half of August [19]. Downstream Inventory - In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year-on-year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year-on-year increase of 4.11 days [26]. Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices decreased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 155 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn decreased by 150 yuan/ton [31]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 554. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,030, and the valid forecasts were 11, totaling 3,041 [37]. Seed Cotton Purchase - The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased slightly compared to the previous week [42]. U.S. Cotton Exports - As of September 11, the current - year net export sales of U.S. upland cotton increased by 186,100 bales, and the next - year net export sales were 19,000 bales [44][47]. U.S. Weather - The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 34.2%, with different drought levels having varying proportions [50]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton in the short term [53]. - Internationally, the market may have limited fluctuations before data resumes, and U.S. cotton exports face challenges and are expected to remain weak [53].