白糖周报：郑糖偏强运行，消化台风影响-20251012

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar prices are rising moderately. Two typhoons have significantly affected sugar - cane growing areas, with varying degrees of damage in different regions. Despite the weak international market, domestic prices are firm as they digest the impact of the typhoons but lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and are expected to remain range - bound between 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton [60]. - In the international market, due to the optimistic supply outlook from India, the expectation of a global sugar supply surplus has increased, putting significant pressure on international sugar prices. India's exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be between 100 - 200 million tons. Brazilian rainfall has alleviated fire concerns but will affect short - term sugarcane pressing. Overall, international sugar prices are limited by supply pressure on the upside and have some cost support on the downside, with an expected trading range of 15.5 - 17 cents/pound [60]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a slight oscillation with a weekly increase of 0.05%, while ICE sugar futures trended downward with a weekly decline of 1.52% [11]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No specific summary content is provided in the text. - Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan: No specific summary content is provided in the text. - Sugar Import Situation: In August, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar 03 - month contract price of 16 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4477 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5688 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4421 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5615 yuan/ton [24]. - Industrial Inventory: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in August was about 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [27]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 10,629, a decrease of 1116 from the previous week. There were 10,629 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [35]. - Brazilian Production Progress: In the first half of September, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 450 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68%, and the sugar production was 30.388 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% [39]. - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.85%, compared to 48.95% in the same period last year [44]. - Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports: In September, Brazil's sugar exports were 3.2458 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [50]. - International Main - producing Area Weather Conditions: In Brazil, the significant increase in rainfall in the main - producing areas is unfavorable for sugarcane pressing. In India, precipitation has decreased significantly [55][57]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The domestic market will digest the impact of typhoons, with prices remaining firm but lacking continuous upward momentum, expected to range between 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton. - The international market is pressured by India's expected supply surplus, with prices limited on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, expected to range between 15.5 - 17 cents/pound.