海外热点冷思考系列一：100%关税：短期TACO重演，长期配置黄金

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports is expected to heighten market risk aversion, leading to a potential short-term correction in A-shares and a slight decline in bond yields[2] - Historical evidence from the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act indicates that high tariffs do not effectively increase revenue and can hinder economic growth, exacerbate deflation, and increase unemployment[2][9] - The current tariff threat is more severe than past instances, with a larger trade deficit and deeper globalization ties, suggesting that reliance on tariffs for fiscal revenue is likely counterproductive[2][9] Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Allocation - Following the tariff announcement, U.S. stock indices and the FTSE A50 futures declined, while U.S. Treasury yields fell and gold prices rose, indicating a flight to safety[9] - The market's reaction to Trump's tariff threats may be less intense than previous instances due to prior exposure to similar announcements, suggesting a degree of market immunity[9] - The long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains weak, reinforcing the value of gold as a strategic asset allocation amidst ongoing economic pressures and rising geopolitical risks[2][9]