新一轮关税，新一轮TACO

Tariff Implications - The U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which has led to a significant market reaction, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%[1] - Historical data shows that high tariffs previously led to a temporary decoupling of U.S.-China trade, with U.S. imports from China dropping over 40% in May 2025[1] - The likelihood of the 100% tariff being implemented is low, with market predictions indicating only a 23% chance of it occurring[2] Market Reactions - The recent tariff threats have caused a "risk-off" sentiment in overseas markets, with significant declines in commodity prices, including a drop of over 4% in international copper and oil prices[1] - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.56% on October 10, which is less severe than the declines seen in April 2025 during previous tariff escalations[4] Negotiation Dynamics - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with the APEC summit, suggesting it may be a strategic move to gain leverage in upcoming negotiations[3] - Potential outcomes of the negotiations include a reduction in tariffs by 5-10% or a delay in discussions for three months[3] Stock Market Analysis - The current market's sensitivity to U.S.-China tensions has decreased compared to earlier in the year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[4] - The proportion of stocks exceeding the 95% historical percentile reached 18% on October 10, suggesting a high market valuation[5] Debt Market Insights - The bond market has reacted to tariff announcements with a significant drop in yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields falling below 1.75% and 2.10%, respectively[8] - The trading volume for key bonds has remained robust, indicating active market participation despite the uncertainty[8] Risk Considerations - The potential for short-term trading risks has increased due to high market valuations and the sensitivity of leveraged funds to market fluctuations[5] - The bond market may face pressure from institutions looking to realize gains before year-end, which could limit further declines in yields[9]