云南增量机制电价结果可观，8月我国天然气表观消费量同比增长1.8%

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Optimistic" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. With the advancement of power market reform, the electricity price trend is likely to rise slightly, and the cost of coal - fired power enterprises is relatively controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the city - gas business is expected to achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [5]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Performance - As of October 10, the utilities sector rose 3.5%, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 3.25%, and the gas sector rose 5.50%. Among sub - industries, the thermal power generation sector rose 6.13%, the hydropower generation sector rose 2.28%, etc. [12][13] - For power companies, the top three gainers were Shanghai Electric Power (18.71%), Wanneng Power (10.56%), and Guiguan Power (7.00%); the bottom three were Jidian Co., Ltd. (0.64%), Zhongmin Energy (1.55%), and Three Gorges Energy (1.65%). For gas companies, the top three gainers were Dazhong Public Utilities (21.12%), Guoxin Energy (6.87%), and Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (5.27%); the bottom three were Furan Energy (-1.93%), Jiufeng Energy (0.84%), and Lantian Gas (2.18%) [15] 2. Power Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Power Coal Prices - The annual long - term agreement price of Qinhuangdao Port's power coal (Q5500) in October was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month. The market price of Shanxi - produced power coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 703 yuan/ton as of October 10, remaining flat week - on - week. The prices of power coal in some production areas decreased week - on - week [21] - Overseas power coal prices: As of October 9, the FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal power coal was 71.2 dollars/ton, up 0.70 dollars/ton week - on - week. As of October 10, the ex - warehouse price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 732.82 yuan/ton, down 0.95 yuan/ton week - on - week [23] 2.2 Power Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of October 10, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.41 million tons, up 650,000 tons week - on - week. As of October 9, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 94.159 million tons, up 1.712 million tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 3.419 million tons, up 692,000 tons/day week - on - week. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 33.509 million tons, down 400,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 2.067 million tons, up 177,000 tons/day week - on - week [28][30] 2.3 Hydropower Inflow - As of October 11, the outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir was 22,100 cubic meters/second, up 206.09% year - on - year and down 7.14% week - on - week [42] 2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - In the Guangdong power market, as of September 20, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 284.90 yuan/MWh, down 3.80% week - on - week and 15.5% year - on - year; the weekly average price of the real - time spot market was 280.40 yuan/MWh, down 12.81% week - on - week and 15.2% year - on - year. Similar data for the Shanxi and Shandong power markets are also provided [49][56][57] 3. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Domestic and Overseas Natural Gas Prices - As of October 10, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center was 4,031 yuan/ton, down 20.90% year - on - year and up 0.37% month - on - month. The European TTF spot price was 11.32 dollars/million British thermal units, down 10.8% year - on - year and 1.6% week - on - week; the US HH spot price was 3.03 dollars/million British thermal units, up 31.2% year - on - year and down 8.7% week - on - week; the Chinese DES spot price was 10.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 15.1% year - on - year and up 5.2% week - on - week [55][60] 3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the 39th week of 2025, the EU's natural gas supply was 5.58 billion cubic meters, up 14.3% year - on - year and 2.5% week - on - week. The inventory was 90.865 billion cubic meters, down 13.18% year - on - year and up 1.15% week - on - week. The estimated consumption was 4.55 billion cubic meters, up 12.5% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year [63][72][74] 3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In August 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 2.5% year - on - year. The domestic natural gas production was 21.24 billion cubic meters, up 6.1% year - on - year. The LNG import volume was 6.35 million tons, down 2.9% year - on - year and up 16.7% month - on - month [77][78] 4. This Week's Industry News 4.1 Power Industry News - In Yunnan, the clearing mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic projects was 0.33 yuan/kWh, and for wind power projects was 0.332 yuan/kWh. In August 2025, the national wind power utilization rate was 96.6%, and the photovoltaic power utilization rate was 96.4% [86] 4.2 Natural Gas Industry News - In August 2025, the national apparent natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 284.56 billion cubic meters, down 0.1% year - on - year [90] 5. This Week's Important Announcements - Guiguan Power's cumulative power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 31.848 billion kWh, up 14.89% year - on - year. Jiufeng Energy plans to invest in the second - phase project of the Xinjiang Qinghua coal - to - natural - gas demonstration project, with an estimated annual profit of 1.47746 billion yuan and an investment return rate of 11.74% [87][88] 6. Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables 6.1 Investment Recommendations - For the power sector, it is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders, regional leaders in areas with tight power supply, hydropower operators, coal - fired power equipment manufacturers, and flexibility retrofit technology companies. For the natural gas sector, it is recommended to focus on companies with low - cost long - term agreement gas sources and receiving terminal assets [5][91] 6.2 Valuation Tables - The report provides the valuation tables of major companies in the utilities industry, including data such as net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, PE, and closing prices from 2024 to 2027 for various companies [92]