Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-12 06:13Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of Agricultural Bank's asset-liability management, focusing on credit, deposits, capital markets, liquidity, and treasury strategies [15][16] - Agricultural Bank's asset-liability configuration emphasizes profitability over liquidity, leading to a significant focus on scale growth compared to other state-owned banks [2][3] - The bank's credit intensity is expected to remain strong, leveraging its advantages in county-level finance, while its bond investments are primarily focused on primary market demand [2][4] - The report highlights the competitive landscape, indicating a shift where larger banks are increasingly outperforming smaller banks, reflecting a "Matthew Effect" [16][30] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Characteristics of Agricultural Bank's Asset-Liability Configuration - The balance among liquidity, profitability, and safety has shifted towards profitability, with a clear emphasis on growth [2] - The bank's asset allocation is characterized by high intensity, quality, and long duration, leading to increased pressure on interest rate risk indicators [2][3] - Deposit management is under pressure, particularly in corporate deposits, which have seen significant outflows [3] - The bank experiences peak asset-liability gaps in January-February and October-November, with recent trends showing increasing pressure in early months and marginal relief in Q4 [2][3] 2. Impact of Agricultural Bank's Asset-Liability Configuration - The bank's credit strategy influences other state-owned banks to enhance their credit offerings, increasing treasury management pressures [4] - The report notes a significant reduction in net financing from joint-stock banks, indicating a divergence from Agricultural Bank's strategies [5] - Agricultural Bank's aggressive treasury strategies are highlighted, with a focus on maximizing various tools to manage liquidity [3][4] 3. Agricultural Bank's Credit Expansion Characteristics - The bank's county-level financial services have become a significant part of its business, with credit growth in these areas outpacing overall loan growth [36][37] - The bank's credit growth rate is leading among the four major banks, with a compound growth rate of 12.95% over the past five years [41][42] - The structure of Agricultural Bank's loans reflects a strong focus on serving the agricultural sector, with the lowest proportion of housing-related loans among major banks [42][43]