棉花：新棉上市压力有所释放

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton has been weak in the past two weeks, hitting a new low since early April. Domestic cotton futures have slightly stabilized due to the stabilization of Xinjiang seed - cotton prices. New cotton's high - yield pressure has been digested to some extent, and cotton futures may enter a short - term oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to seed - cotton transaction prices and external market impacts on cotton futures [1][2][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Continuous | 65.36 | 65.56 | 63.26 | 63.77 | - 1.53 | - 2.34 | 125346 | - 12893 | 169783 | 940 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Continuous | 13180 | 13420 | 13180 | 13325 | 110 | 0.83 | 594023 | 33358 | 554900 | 19446 | | Cotton Yarn Continuous | 19290 | 19435 | 19430 | 19375 | 55 | 0.28 | 14474 | - 9897 | 9913 | 6005 | [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has been in a narrow - range decline, affected by weak fundamentals (large pressure from new US cotton listings, poor US cotton exports, and weak global demand) and negative external factors (strong US dollar, weak crude oil, and a grim international economic and trade situation) [6] - US government shutdown has led to the suspension of weekly US cotton export sales data [7] - India: The new - year CCI cotton purchase is about to start, with different start times in different states. The minimum support price of S - 6 this year is 8% higher than last year. As of this week, the sales volume is 8.9 million bales, and the inventory is 1.1 million bales [8] - Brazil: Cotton exports slightly rebounded in September, with 178,800 tons exported, a 31% month - on - month increase. China is the main export destination in September [8] - Australia: Cotton exports remained strong in August, with an estimated output of about 910,000 tons this season. As of October 8, reservoir storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 70% of the total capacity [9] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average, with an estimated output of 6 - 6.5 million bales. Most spinning mills focus on domestic cotton, and few are willing to make advance purchases [9] - Bangladesh: Inquiries are mainly for low - priced Brazilian cotton. Although new import inquiries have emerged due to the decline in US cotton futures prices, overall downstream demand is still weak. In September, clothing export revenue declined for the second consecutive month [10][11] - Southeast Asian textile industry: As of the week of October 10, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69%, 63%, and 65% respectively [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot trading is light, and seed - cotton prices have stabilized. Spot prices have slightly declined, and spinning mills mainly make just - in - time purchases. New cotton processing is increasing, and the supply of 2025/26 new cotton in inland warehouses is gradually rising [12] - Seed - cotton purchase: During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton first fell and then rose. As of October 9, the mainstream purchase price was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg [13] - Cotton warehouse receipts: As of October 10, there were 2942 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 28 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 2970, equivalent to 124,740 tons [13] - Spinning mills are in a slightly better situation than weaving mills. After the holiday, the cotton yarn market has improved slightly, but overall confidence is still insufficient. The cotton fabric market is weak, with few orders and low production and sales rates [14] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including data on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, and other aspects [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures have broken through the low point in early April, with a very weak overall trend. In the short term, it is greatly affected by the external market and can only rely on price decline to stimulate demand [19] - Domestic cotton futures have slightly stabilized. The pressure of new cotton high - yield has been digested to some extent. In the short term, they may enter an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to seed - cotton transaction prices and external market impacts [19]