国泰君安期货能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The outlook for natural rubber this week is oscillating weakly, and the weak pattern may continue. Supply growth expectations are strong due to the expected decrease in rainfall in the producing areas, which restricts the upside of rubber prices. After the holiday, Qingdao inventory may show a slight accumulation. With insufficient short - term market drivers and the impact of macro - level tariffs, the natural rubber price is expected to be in a weak pattern. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or taking a short - selling approach on rallies for RU, considering a shift from positive - spread to reverse - spread trading based on arrival conditions, and observing for cross - variety trading [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) called for setting a livelihood - sustaining rubber price for rubber farmers [5]. - In August 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Domestic consumption increased year - on - year and month - on - month [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck sales soared by about 82% year - on - year, and the market has achieved six consecutive months of growth [7]. 3.2 Price - From September 26th to the present, RU, NR, and TSR20 prices declined, while the price of Japanese RSS3 rose. As of October 10, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15315 yuan/ton, 12380 yuan/ton, 170.40 cents/kg, and 312.40 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 1.00%, - 0.68%, - 1.27%, and 1.33% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads showed changes. For example, the full - cream to RU01 basis was - 715 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, with a 12.80% month - on - month increase and a 37.55% year - on - year increase [16]. - Other spreads: RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased. Non - standard basis spreads and light - dark color spreads also had respective changes [20][26]. - Substitute prices: The cost support for butadiene rubber weakened, and the supply also dragged down the short - term spot market [33]. 3.3 Fund Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds fluctuated significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR recovered, and the settled funds also fluctuated significantly [36]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - Weather in producing areas: Rainfall in southern Thailand is slightly lower year - on - year, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand is approaching the end. During the National Day holiday, precipitation in Yunnan and Hainan increased [43][44]. - Raw material prices: Raw material prices continued to diverge. The prices of Thai cup lump and smoked sheets increased slightly, while the prices of Thai, Hainan, and Yunnan latex decreased [46]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex production both decreased [54]. - Upstream processing profits: Rubber processing profits continued to recover [55]. - Delivery profits: The delivery profits of whole - milk rubber recovered [58]. - Exports: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also had different trends for different types of rubber. In September, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased. In August, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly. In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level [66][72][76]. - Imports: In August, China imported 52.08 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 9.68% month - on - month increase and a 5.39% year - on - year increase. The imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and Indonesian mixed rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber decreased significantly [83]. 3.4.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some sample enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The inventory of all - steel tires continued to rebound, while the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased marginally [86]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales continued to recover year - on - year and month - on - month, and passenger - car sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - Road transport turnover: In August, the freight turnover of road transport improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the social inventory of natural rubber continued to decline, with a larger decline in light - colored rubber than in dark - colored rubber. As of October 10, the futures inventories of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber on relevant exchanges all decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [95][98].